natgas: Robry
Gas flows for last week were consistent with a withdrawal of 55 BCF, which would be bullish against the baseline (50 BCF injection on 137 demand-days).
Flows suggested 69% of operators increased withdrawals over the previous week, 22% decreased withdrawals, and 9% were unchanged. Flows also suggested 84% had net withdrawals for the week, while 16% had net injections.
Among the various model components/methodologies, Capacity postings project a 56 BCF draw, while downstream postings suggested a 47 BCF draw, and the dailies a 51 BCF draw.
The longer-range model remains behind the baseline shift- saying a withdrawal of 42 BCF would be on trend with the past 10 weeks.
As with last week, high margin of error on the gas-flow model due to switchover. (The gas flow model has historically had a very difficult time at switchover (to withdrawals)- the time of year when pipelines sometimes divert scheduled injections and withdrawals to/from linepack (rather than burn compressor fuel to inject one week only to withdraw the next); and no-notice activities become more irradic and unpredictable).
NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: Gas flows suggest 47 BCF pulled thus far (through Tuesday Night), puting us on track for perhaps an 80-100 BCF pull.
-Robry825
