Let us hope for MGMX to be in this next Gold rally, PR. PLEASE..
chevy56
Major Spring Rally Begins in Gold and Silver
By Roger Wiegand
April 05, 2007
www.tradertracks.com
"Key charts are indicating major moves ahead for gold and silver. We forecast the up- trend through the end of April and perhaps a few days into May, 2007. -Traderrog
All indicators on the XAU are pointing to a rally in stocks.
The long down-sloping top channel line was hit on a breakout at the end of February, 2007. It did not hold and the index sold down to lower support beneath the moving averages and the sloping channel line. As trading opened in April, 2007, we see three solid rally bars moving higher in a new breakout rally. Note that price is now above all moving averages. In the middle box, our PMO, a measure of momentum has crossed lines and turned up above zero which is bullish. In the lowest box we see a very important indicator, the price of gold in a ratio relative to precious metals stocks. The darker line is the one to watch. It bottomed out in May showing us an oversold condition, moved up in the first false rally and fell back under the lighter colored 20 day moving average. In its last move, the ratio is now going higher and is touching the 0.21 measure (right scale) in a positive trend. All of these indicators are bullish and we see nothing to hold back prices except the normal resistance which is 145 and 150. We would expect to see 150 as a minimum and perhaps something higher with enough buying power. This is a very positive chart.
Cash Gold Chart for the 4-4-07 Close Makes a Rally Move Toward $700.
We should expect gold to trade to the top of the channel line near $700+ in this rally. There is very strong resistance at $680, $728 and $740 which is our spring goal. The PMO momentum lines in the lower box are sloping up only gradually telling us gold needs more buyers to really get going. Look at what happened in last year’s April-May cycle. We may or may not get as much pricing power as May, 2006 but then again might get even more when general stock markets sell in May on the annual cycle. Today, we are above all moving averages. The current wave count tells us the big number three wave up should follow to normal resistance at $680 which we touched yesterday on the most active futures month. This chart is cash gold and has yet to resist at $680 which we expect. After the $680 break-out, next resistance on the cash gold is $700+, near the top channel line on this chart. Our $700 price channel will resist but we are forecasting $740 for the spring high before the May correction takes hold.
Daily Cash Silver Closing 4-4-07 Shows Bold Rally to $13.53.
The daily closing on cash silver for 4-4-07 stopped exactly on my resistance number of $13.53. The futures were trading on this date roughly $.12 higher in the mid-$13.60’s. The new price is above all moving averages and breaking out toward next resistance at $14. Following resistance is $14.50 (mild) and $14.80 (stronger) with our final spring goal being $15.20. In tech charting to a final $15.20 top during the second week of May (compare last year’s data) we touch near the top channel line on this chart and a silver price of $15.20 by forecasting off this chart. When the correction comes in May, look for silver to retreat to the 200 day moving average of $13.50 in a worst case scenario. For fall of 2007, we forecast $19.95 to $22.50. This could be higher if the general stock markets have a serious relapse in September or October which is certainly possible. -Traderrog
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Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks weekly newsletter providing market information, opinions, and recommendations for trading gold, silver and energy markets.
good PR.
AI
