Upstream by Barry Morgan -- Nervous nation looking ahead to make-or-break elections this month
A total of 61 million registered Nigerian voters will head for the polls on 14 April to elect new state governors, kicking off a process in which every level of elected representation must face the ballot, with President Olusegun Obasanjo finally stepping down on 29 May, writes Barry Morgan.
If Vice President Atiku Abubakar does not vie for the top job, the election looks like a two-horse race between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate of Katsina State Governor Umaru Yar'Adua and former military head of state Muhammadu Buhari for the All Nigeria Peoples Party.
Abubakar faces disqualification if the courts back the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) decision to bar him on the basis of earlier accusations of corruption by the Economic&Financial Crimes Commission, headed by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.
Presidential polls set for 21 April should technically have been delayed "until a convenient date" upon the death last week of former Ondo State Governor and Alliance for Democracy candidate Adebayo Adeferati, but INEC opted instead to maintain the timetable and let his party choose an alternative contender.
As polls loom, increasing numbers of wealthier Nigerians are jumping ship to avoid possible unrest, mostly to the UK if they can afford it. London estate agents testify to a boom in rented apartments from Nigerian families seeking to lie low until a new president is sworn in.
A backlash is expected if Abuja proceeds against indicted governors ahead of the transition, with armed political thugs instigating violence that could yet mar polls and provide the regime with an excuse to declare a state of emergency.
Local reports indicate Abuja has already sounded out foreign governments about extraditing elected officials who try to flee moves to arrest them in Nigeria.
Disaffection has spread beyond the oilpatch with critics asking why the regime has released ethnic Yoruba militant leaders but kept Ijaw and Igbo radicals behind bars. Clamour is mounting for the release of Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force supremo Alhaji Dokubu Asari and Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (Massob) leader Chief Ralph Uwarzuruike.
The PDP has intensified its campaign in the Igbo states in a bid to shore up support in the hinterland, where disaffection is strongest, especially among supporters of Biafran War leader Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, who heads up yet another opposition party.
Few would dispute Ribadu's assertion last weekend that "corruption is the biggest national emergency that (Nigeria) faces today", overshadowing demands for resource control and the rehabilitation of marginalised communities.
"We run the risk of destroying our democracy and economy as indeed it has come down to our community life: go and see how politicians buy party officials, the police and even the Electoral Commission," he said.
Referring to the state governors, Ribadu blasted their misuse of constitutional immunity from prosecution. "If you allow this for another four years we are done for. If you know how much they are sharing you will pity this country," he said.
He added that corruption was at the root of the crisis in the Niger Delta, which if left unchecked could degenerate into a civil war similar to that experienced in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Meanwhile, foreign companies are streaming out of the oilpatch Wilbros left after sustaining an operational loss last year of $85 million leaving ill-equipped indigenous contractors to pick up the slack, according to Port Harcourt Chamber of Commerce Oil&Gas Group chairman Lucky Akhiwu.
"At the moment, for the expatriates having to stay and work in the delta, it is at a heavy risk and cost to their employers... militants are bringing the economy of the region to its knees," Akhiwu told local media.
All of this is a boost for for security advsers such as ArmorGroup and Erinys. Control Risks now has about 85 people in the Niger Delta working for oil company clients.
Energy Minister Edmund Daukoru conservatively put the nation's revenue loss since unrest began in the delta eight years ago at $7 billion, acknowledging that $10 billion worth of annual investment was at stake if the crisis was left to escalate.
Last week saw yet more abductions of foreign oil workers a Briton and a Dutchsecurity manager in separate incidents while the Petroleum&Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (Pengassan) deplored the employment crunch the crisis was causing, adding that several members had been killed and kidnapped in recent months.
A few well-publicised arrests are made and some arms are recovered, but the overwhelming impression of the industry is one of government helplessness in the face of unrestrained criminal elements.
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04 April 2007 23:01 GMT | last updated: 04 April 2007 23:01 GMT
