I think lip service is one thing as man of these countries are playing for the masses but Oil is one commodity that is dependent on good will of house of Saud and Al-Sabah, Iran plays a role too, and Iran is with US for reasons of geo-politics and geo-Islam. This is an ideological schism between the Shia and Sunni Islam dates back to martyrdom of Hussein in Karbela, Talebans and Shia centric Iran have some accounts to settle in a dispute that involves the nephew of the prophet. Iran will keep out of this even if this war exceeds far too long, it will be a war of hit and run and Kabul will fall in no time and a legitimate government installed, the Europeans and most of these countries do not understand the US-Pakistani alliance on this one, the Armies have long worked together in Afghanistan they can pull this one in a manner that will shock the USSR. Oil is sum total of lot of these ground realities I just don’t see it coming.
Lot of history and understanding of historical Islamic bickering involved in this dispute. Iran is not a swing producer but Iran and UAE can close Strait of Hormuz through which even extra supplies from Saudi and Kuwait can be nullified although red sea port exports would have no problems. But UAE and Iran both are strong US allies, no streets to worry there to, Iran would like to see back of Tale ban now no better chance than this. Turkey another major player, nearly 50 Turks have been missing in WTC, they have no appetite to help these fundamentalists. Saudis and Kuwaitis have no street to worry about; they are so rich that any demonstration will be conceivably on cars, no pockets of instability there. With Saddam collared and US bases in Gulf I most respectfully say I don’t see Oil supplies being hit. The players who matter in this business of Oil are all well positioned and US have least of worries on any of this country, the biggest was the attitude of Pakistan Army that mattered the most, although World media will not accept it, anyway most of them were trying to brand Pakistan as a target until 15th, Sept not an ally. If Pakistan had to neutralise that would have been a major problem and could have meant instability of the oil markets as they have ability on Makran coast and Gawadar but it could not have lasted for more than few hours. I think not as Pakistani but as a regional semi expert that US will be hugely successful in this campaign. Oil for me may have blip but I hope the telephone goes in by Mr. Bush to Prince Abdullah, it will you will see that.
Iqbal Latif
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