America Strikes Back

[Archangel]

And here are some thoughts as we tap dance into that volatile region:

Global Intelligence Cooperation Comes With Risks
2355 GMT, 010913

Summary

The United States is now building coalition support for its response to Sept. 11 terror attacks. The chief benefit of cooperation with the international community will be intelligence. The ease with which the terrorists struck demonstrates a gaping hole in U.S. intelligence capabilities that allies may help to fill. A host of nations have jumped at the chance to build cooperation with the United States, but such collaboration comes with a price.

Analysis

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sept. 13 that the United States would seek to build a coalition response to terror attacks in Washington, D.C., and New York City. A host of countries -- including China, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and Saudi Arabia -- have offered to help the United States track down those responsible.

The offers come when the United States has dire need for intelligence on the activities, operations, networks and funding of foreign terrorist organizations based in Africa, the Middle East and central and southeast Asia. But global counterterrorism cooperation among a group of nations could be a catch-22 for the United States. Other nations will seek to shape the United States' coming war against terrorism to suit their own interests.

For Washington, this presents a strategic dilemma. Cooperation is necessary and invaluable, but the benefits must be weighed against the motivations of the many actors involved. This will hamper counterterrorism efforts. The United States is also inclined to act unilaterally. Dependence upon foreign sources for intelligence would make this impossible. But the United States cannot decline all foreign support. The radical Islamic groups most likely involved -- although organized into a loose network -- act in concert. Fighting them will require cooperation.

Washington needs the intelligence capabilities of other nations. For example, India, Israel and Russia can provide significant human intelligence sources and foreign language skills. Both are vital to exposing the terrorist network involved in the recent attacks. Other nations can also provide intelligence on terrorism networks within their own countries, as well as the groups' sources of funding, likely sponsors, and intelligence-gathering and other capabilities.

Many of these nations have a wealth of information on counterterrorism methodology and decades of experience fighting militant groups. These countries and others -- especially cooperative moderate Arab nations -- can help U.S. intelligence officials penetrate countries where spying is normally difficult.

From a logistical and technical perspective, such cooperation could give Washington a competitive advantage for a war in which intelligence will be the most valuable weapon.

But accepting such assistance comes with a price. The trap is simple: By pinpointing groups like Palestinians and Chechens, nations such as Israel and Russia could seek to manipulate the U.S. response in order to combat their own enemies.

Israel immediately offered intelligence and military assistance to the United States following the Sept. 11 attacks. Israel is eager for the United States to identify a common enemy and to gain U.S. support in its own problem with Palestinian militants. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in conversations with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, compared Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat to Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden -- the United States' prime suspect, Israeli radio reported Sept. 13.

Collaborating with Israel could put the United States in a difficult position. Already, the attacks in the United States have granted Israel virtual carte blanche in dealing with suspected Palestinian militants. Sharing intelligence about insurgent groups in the Middle East with Washington will once again position Israel as an indispensable U.S. ally, ensuring continued support in its war against the Palestinians and possibly future conflicts with Arab neighbors.

Many other nations could benefit in the same way. For example, India has already offered to help the United States if investigators link the Sept. 11 attacks to bin Laden and his operations in Pakistan, the Times of India reported Sept. 13. India would gladly use U.S. resources to stamp out radical Islamic groups in Pakistan as these groups are fighting in Kashmir, territory over which India and Pakistan have fought three wars.

Similarly, Russia stands to gain from helping America. The Russian Federal Security Service has already identified the Pakistan-based radical Islamic group Jaamat e-Islami as the likely suspect in the suicide hijackings. The group has been tied to Chechen rebels and a spate of bombings in Russia in 1999, according to ITAR-TASS. Moscow has its own reasons, however, to finger a group connected to the Chechens and targeted by India: By condemning these groups, the United States will be forced to drop its own criticism of Russia's operations in Chechnya.

Other countries can use a global intelligence coalition to their own benefit. Even if they are not directly threatened by Islamic fundamentalist groups, by sharing intelligence and collaborating with the United States in a global war against terrorism, they would have a plethora of opportunities to gather intelligence on potential rivals or stretch their own military reach.

For instance, the head of the Japanese Defense Agency announced Sept. 11 that Japan would fully support the United States and act with it to deal with terrorist attacks, The Associated Press reported. If Japan can frame its military restructuring as an international counterterrorism effort, that would go a long way to help Tokyo avoid many problems associated with the legacy of its World War II militarism and with domestic and foreign opposition.

European countries will seek to strengthen their own counterterrorism measures and benefit from American financial resources. Though Spain, for instance, is not likely to claim that Basque separatists were involved in the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, cooperation with the United States can advance Madrid's efforts to end its problem with separatist rebels.

People the world over see the attack on the United States as a tragedy. But foreign governments will look to turn it into an opportunity to solve many of their own national security problems. The United States will accept help to a limited degree although ultimately it is more likely to implement policy on a unilateral basis. But with a united enemy, a disunited coalition puts the United States at a disadvantage not easily overcome.




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