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Re: Dan3 post# 17989

Wednesday, 11/19/2003 1:05:37 AM

Wednesday, November 19, 2003 1:05:37 AM

Post# of 97586
The time from announcement to groundbreaking would have been >4 months at any US location, and the construction time and ramp at an isolated location would add 2 more months to that.

The $ value of six month less time to market is enormous. There's a question as to whether the value of this extra production should be limited to the products that the fab is likely to produce in its first six months or whether the $ value of getting to market earlier is equal to six months of peak production. Fabs become useless NOT when they are "worn out," but when they are no longer competitive. So a longer planning/construction time actually shortens the lifetime of the fab.

The total value of this production is six months of full production -- at least 20M chips at $100 or $2B, even if they only produce 6M chips in the first six months.

The net present value of these chips is well over $1.5B, making "time to market" the most crucial site selection criterion.

Petz

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