Metals and Agriculture are the place for me.
I too have run the traps today, listened to the talking heads, read the stories on the internet, lisened to conference calls, etc.
I feel that the world is going to continue to consume massive amounts of base metals, much of it going to energy conversion efforts. Ethanol, biodiesel, nuclear, and coal plant construction build-out. Chinese migration from rural to urban landscape will continue at a blistering pace: housing, autos,farm/mining/manufacturing equipment, appliances, airports, roads, general infrastructure will continue at a 10% growth rate. To a lesser degree Brazil, India, and Russia will be engaged in the same activities as China. The U.S. economy and housing market is no longer the controller of base metal prices and consumption.
The agricultural industry is going to benefit from the conversion of food to fuel. The bottom line here is we now have additional demand for grain that was not anticipated. The next real estate bubble is going to be in farm land. We are also going to see food price inflation hit hard in the coming months.
I am using this pull back to rotate out of some of the bigger metal stocks I have owned, moving into junior "near term" producers of base metals, gold and silver(visit the "junior miners" board for ideas in that sector). As far as agriculture I still like YAR.OL on weakness. My brothers and I own 240 acres of farmland in Illinois so I have plenty of exposure to grain and farmland.
I'm no good at market timing. It seems to me that if the global market was going down the tubes gold would be up not down. The base metal prices held up well last week and they too should tank if the global economies are headed for recession.
I hope we hear about a bunch of hedge funds and derivative deals blowing up in the weeks to come. A good cleansing will help markets continue healthy progress.
All in all I can't see a good reason to bail out or go shoet at this point. The consensus of a 10% decline probably means it won't happen (near term). Spring is also typically strong for metals.
No matter what happens, I owe a great debt to this board and all of it's posters. Everyone has great ideas and opinions and I listen, learn from, and appreciate them all.
Good luck to each and every one of you!
Kipp
