WTM - Since you are unable to open the SA article , here is another comment to the SA Article you have cited:
1) Material Handling
In Q2, sale of material handling (GenDrive) units were down 73% while deployments of hydrogen infrastructure at customer sites decreased by 70% as the company could no longer afford to subsidize sales with money-losing lease and service offerings.
2) DOE Conditional Loan Guarantee
Considering management's track record, I firmly expect the DOE to impose very harsh conditions in order to protect taxpayers' money. For my part, I do not expect funding anytime soon. In addition, the company won't be able to utilize these funds for covering operating losses.
3) Fuel Cell Adoption in On-Road Applications
This has been a total disaster for companies like Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Renault and Nikola so far. There's basically no sense in buying FCEVs due to a lack of hydrogen infrastructure and particularly prohibitive operating expenses. Even the heavy duty transport market will likely be dominated by BEVs in the future.
4) Electrolyzers
Another major disaster. Worldwide demand for electrolyzers has been well below initial expectations thus resulting in massive overcapacities.
medium.com/...
Even the author's $790.8 million number for the U.S. market in 2033 looks tiny and please note that the total number also includes alkaline electrolyzers. Apparently, PLUG will have to find foreign buyers for its products.
The business has been a mess since inception with PLUG missing its own expectations by a mile each year.
In addition, the basic engineering and design package story is nonsense as most of these projects make it beyond this initial phase.
5) Green Hydrogen
The author should get his facts straight. The Tennessee plant doesn't produce green hydrogen as it is using waste gas streams from the nearby Olin plant.
"As of the end of 2023, the firm intended to produce green hydrogen at two more factories, in Texas and New York, by the end of 2025." What now? 2023 or 2025? These facilities would require near-term DOE funds but there's basically no way to commence operations until the end of 2025 regardless of the company securing funding or not.
The company does not produce 25 tons per day of green hydrogen as only Georgia is a green hydrogen plant with a capacity of 15 tons per day.
The company is already recognizing tax credits but fuel margins have remained negative.
6) BTIG
Basically all analysts have lowered their price target following the recent Q2 results and disappointing outlook.
Here's an unbiased note on the BTIG statements:
www.investing.com/...
7) BP
There won't be any major near-term electrolyzer demand from BP and other players due to a lack of large-scale projects FIDs.
8) Cash Burn Nonsense
The company burned $1.9 BILLION in 2023 and another $0.7 BILLION in H1/2024
9) Prospects
Over the past decades, the company has failed to deliver on EVERY single promise made by management so why exactly should investors expect this pattern to change?
In sum, this article contains severe factual errors and should be corrected by the author or perhaps even pulled altogether.
AI
