Cleveland Cliffs Inc (CLF)

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U.S. Steel Stock Is Rising. The Politics Are Getting More Muddled.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/u-s-steel-stock-nippon-cleveland-e5c32ba3?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

First Published: Sept. 18, 2024 at 9:40?a.m. ET



Coal on barges on the Monongahela River near United States Steel. Photo: Justin Merriman/Bloomberg
Shares of United States Steel were rising Wednesday after a report that the government decided to delay a review of the company’s potential takeover by Japanese steel firm Nippon Steel
5401

1.93%
.

This deal has plenty of political intrigue as both Democratic and Republican politicians jockey for support from labor in swing states such as Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel
X

2.62%
is based. That hasn’t been great for investors.

Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. would delay its decision on whether to approve the merger based on national security concerns until after the November presidential election. Nippon Steel declined to comment. U.S. Steel didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Can we get a Japanese translation for Quid Pro Quo,” quipped Gordon Haskett analyst Don Bilson in a Wednesday report, pointing out that the reported decision to delay came after the U.S. and Japan discussed curbs on exports of semiconductors to China. “A cynic might see [the chip and steel] reports as two peas in the same pod….to get the Japanese on board with China curbs, [America] has given the Japanese a wink that Nippon Steel will get the approval it needs after the election.”

U.S. Steel stock rose more than 4% in early trading, though by late morning, it had slipped back for a gain of 2.1% to $37. The S&P 500
SPX

0.01%
was flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA

-0.03%
was down 0.2%.

It has been a wild ride for investors lately. In August, Cleveland-Cliffs
CLF

-0.38%
bid $35 a share in cash and stock for U.S. Steel. Then in December, U.S. Steel agreed to be bought by Nippon Steel for $55 a share in cash.

Nippon Steel is the fourth-largest steel maker in the world, and has committed to spending $2.7 billion modernizing U.S. Steel’s American operations. That is significant, given that Wall Street projects U.S. Steel to generate about $1.7 billion in cumulative free cash flow in 2025 and 2026.

Still, the deal has faced political opposition from both sides of the aisle and from the steelworkers union, which backed the original Cleveland-Cliffs bid. A report that President Joe Biden was set to block the deal on national security grounds sent U.S. Steel shares to $29 each from about $38. Now, shares are almost back to $38.



The move on Wednesday shows that investors believe there is still a chance the deal will go through. Blocking the transaction never made a lot of economic sense. Japan is an ally, Nippon Steel is the far larger and better-capitalized company, and the merger doesn’t change domestic market shares substantially. If the U.S. Steel/Cleveland-Cliffs merger happened, for instance, the pair would have a greater market position in areas such as steel for critical automotive applications.

Here is a way to think about the odds of the deal going through. If the $30 range is the “no deal” price for U.S. Steel stock and $55 is the ultimate upside if Nippon Steel is successful, with the stock at about $37, investors currently put a 30% chance of the merger happening. If the stock was right between $30 and $55 the odds would be about 50%.

Coming into Wednesday trading, U.S. Steel stock was down about 26% year to date. Most of that decline is related to diminished expectations that the Nippon Steel merger will be completed.