Drivers for settlement from DNA perspective....
I have been thinking about INSM and TRCA's position from DNA's vantage point. I have been lurking around this board and TRCA yahoo board (INSM yahoo mb is worthless!). Everyone makes a big deal about DNA and their strength / influence / lawyers etc. Now I agree DNA is one of "the" bio players, but face it they make so little from TRCA/IGF licensing TRCA/INSM is not even a blip on their radar. No matter what happens to INSM or TRCA it's not going to have much effect on DNA PPS.
But I think DNA may have two concerns when it comes to INSM/TRCA...
1). Potential IP loss - DNA owns the patents and will have little/no stake in any future IGF market without IP. Judge Wilkens could rule against them on IC (or) INSM will most definately appeal, so settlement mitigates this IP risk.
2). Potential longer term erosion / and stagnent HGH franchise - right now IGF isn't a threat to HGH. And one could argue without INSM/BP3 combo IGF may never threaten HGH franchises. But over time as Dr's/patients become more informed of IGF/BP3 possiblities it could erode HGH market for some indications. DNA Nutropin sales were ~380 million last year for DNA. That is only ~5% of DNA's revenue stream and HGH is not going to contribute to revenu growth very much. HGH is a crowded/competitive market. However, IGF is a new related niche growth market (but its too early to tell how market will develop / expand). DNA would like a slice of pie if IGF biology markets becomes a franchise, settlement may open that door to that expansion.
Given these thoughts I wondered, maybe DNA is the party pushing for settlement of some sort. It would reduce risk to their IP, may even get INSM to license their patents (not clear to me if license would go to DNA or TRCA, is TRCA license exclusive?). This also may postion them to wait and see how IGF develops in growth space and position them to make later move thru any license agreement they put in place.
It could be an interesting couple of days, but I'm not sure that this thing won't take more time to play out.
Good luck to all.
