Savvy Trades and Investments

[wadegarret]

I think AI stocks saw a multi year top,

including SMCI @ $1250 and NVDA @ $140($1400 pre split). I think two things happen from here that would make my predictions come true. Competition, and substantially slower growth ! I mean why would a semi stocks(ie NVDA) sell for a 40+ PE going forward, or a hardware stock(SMCI) even a 30+ PE going forward anyway ? The answer is huge revenue growth from massive hype. So although the hype of AI wasn't as great as the Internet in 2000, the end result will be similar IMO. That is, semi stocks will go down 60%-75% from their highs, and not see higher that their recent highs in early to mid 2024 for many years. Now that's not to say AI won't be big, but the internet stocks went down 80%-90% in 2000-2002, all the while there were 5 times as many people using the internet during that same period !

So my feeling is, DONT buy the dip, except for the short term, if you want to take a gamble on the right timing for a dead cat bounce.