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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 3, 2024

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7352 and is trading up about 2.60% for the year from last year's settlement of 7165. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 7297 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 7459.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7459.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 1st at 8452, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 7604. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 8452 made 4 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 6563 and 9177.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 1st reaching 8452 failed to exceed the previous high of 8767 made back during the week of April 8th. That rally amounted to only twelve weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in April at 8767. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8070, it made last high in April. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has held above last month's low of 7459 reaching 7459.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 8767 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 9503 back during September 2023. Critical support still underlies this market at 6760 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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