Hweb- Holding into earnings
If you or anyone else really knew when they had a decent advantage holding into earnings, can you imagine how much money you could make ? Call it by comps, intra quarter news, guidance, or whatever. If you actually even had a 5% advantage knowing when to hold or not to hold, why not take out everything you own, and simply bet it ? I mean why would you even have to play the market, if you could make millions just doing that ?
For example, if I took $1M right now, and bet that entire amount on a different report every single day, one before the bell, one after the bell, I could bet on around 500 reports per year. If I was right about holding even 55% of the time vs wrong 45% of the time over that year period, can you image how much money I could make ? If I was right 55% of the time, that would mean on 500 reports, I would be right 275 times, and wrong 225 times. So I would be right a net 50 times per year, or once a week on average. Lets say all the other times, whether right or wrong, cancelled each other out dollar wise. Lets further say, that the average stock went up or down 4% as this is what I found on the internet...
"The average one-day post-earnings move for S&P 500 index companies has been 4.6% in either direction, according to Dow Jones Market Data as of February 12, 2024. This is higher than the one-year average of 4.3%, five-year average of 4%, and 10-year average of 3.7%."
OK, so now we take $1M, and make an average 4%, each week for a year. How much might we make off that $1M if we were right on net 50 reports per year. Try over $700M per year !
AI
