Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[H2R]

Aspirational revenue of $2.5B

The following is a simple back of the envelope estimate of aspirational revenue and MC.

Russ Trenary clearly stated the market OTLK is after all current off-label bevacizumab injections in the EU and the US. He provided the following numbers.
* 3.5M injections in the US
* 2.8M injections in the EU

He also gave us a few clues on the pricing over a few presentations
My guess is that it will end up around
* $500 in the US
* $300 in the EU

So the top possible revenue (in a few years, after FDA approval, etc.) would be:

 
 * 300 * 2.8M for the EU = $0.84B 
 * 500 * 3.5M for the US = $1.75B 
                           ===== 
 * Total Possible Revenue: $2.59B		 
 

Typical biotechs valuations go around 10 times revenue. I don't think that would be the case here.
Let's say it's 4 times.

The aspirational market cap in the full possible market capture would be greater than $10B.

Say they only achieve half of that market: $5B MC.
Today, the MC is below $200M. 25 times the MC in say 4 years.

You can play on the price per injections and the % of the bevacizumab off-label injections OTLK will capture.
The number of off-label injections is now a known entity: we can use that as a solid estimation data point.
The moral of this exercise is that the upside can be very large over the medium term.

Best of luck with your investments!