FAT CATS

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Posted by: researcher59
In reply to: None Date:2/27/2007 10:10:44 PM
Post #of 66202

The market usually bounces back after a big one day drop - here's some interesting historical data from CNBC - but beware of course that a 400+ point drop is much less significant now with the DOW at 12000 than it was years ago with the DOW at a fraction of that level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.2%, suffering its biggest drop on a percentage basis since March 2003 when it fell 3.6%.

It was the worst point decline for the blue-chip index since Sept. 17, 2001, the first day of trading following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

The Nasdaq had its largest percentage drop since September 24, 2003 and the S&P 500 was on pace for its first five-session losing streak in three years.

The Dow has dropped 500 points or more only 5 times, the first time occurring on Oct. 19, 1987 (ranked by largest point loss):

09/17/2001: The Dow falls 684.813 points or 7.13%
04/14/2000: The Dow falls 617.777 points or 5.66%
10/27/1997: The Dow falls 554.255 points or 7.18%
08/31/1998: The Dow falls 512.613 points or 6.37%
10/19/1987: Black Friday, the Dow fell 508 points for a 22.61% drop or $500B loss in one day

Largest One-Day Percentage Drops for the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ in the same day sorted by the Dow change:

10/19/1987: The Dow fell 22.61%, the S&P fell 20.46% & the NASDAQ fell 11.35%
10/26/1987: The Dow fell 8.04%, the S&P fell 8.28% & the NASDAQ fell 9%
10/27/1997: The Dow fell 7.18%, the S&P fell 6.87% & the NASDAQ fell 7.02%
09/17/2001: The Dow fell 7.13%, the S&P fell 4.92% & the NASDAQ fell 6.83%
10/13/1989: The Dow fell 6.91%, the S&P fell 6.11% & the NASDAQ fell 3.09%
01/8/1988: The Dow fell 6.85%, the S&P fell 6.78% & the NASDAQ fell 3.20%
08/31/1998: The Dow fell 6.37%, the S&P fell 6.79% & the NASDAQ fell 8.56%
04/14/2000: The Dow fell 5.66%, the S&P fell 5.78% & the NASDAQ fell 9.67%
07/19/2002: The Dow fell 4.64%, the S&P fell 3.84% & the NASDAQ fell 2.79%

Market Performance 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month After a Large drop in the Dow.

The market averages are the most bullish after 1 month, and in the case of the S&P 500, after a 400 point drop or greater, the S&P is positive 100% of the time, an average of 5%.

After a 400 point drop in the Dow (6 Occurrences):

1 Day later the Dow is up 83.33% of the time an average of 3.58%
1 Day later the S&P 500 is up 83.33% of the time an average of 3.79%
1 Day later the NASDAQ is up 66.67% of the time an average of 5.20%
1 Week later the Dow is up 66.67% of the time an average of 4.23%
1 Week later the S&P 500 is up 66.67% of the time an average of 3.91%
1 Week later the NASDAQ is up 66.67% of the time an average of 5.46%
1 Month later the Dow is up 83.33% of the time an average of 5.67%
1 Month later the S&P 500 is up 100% of the time an average of 5.01%
1 Month later the NASDAQ is up 83.33% of the time an average of 5.86%

After a 200 point drop in the Dow (74 Occurrences):

1 Day later the Dow is up 56% of the time an average of 1.5%
1 Day later the S&P 500 is up 64% of the time an average of 1.47%
1 Day later the NASDAQ is up 58.67% of the time an average of 2.27%
1 Week later the Dow is up 61.33% of the time an average of 3.08%
1 Week later the S&P 500 is up 60.81% of the time an average of 3.28%
1 Week later the NASDAQ is up 58.11% of the time an average of 5.05%
1 Month later the Dow is up 69.33% of the time an average of 5.93%
1 Month later the S&P 500 is up 74.67% of the time an average of 5.60%
1 Month later the NASDAQ is up 66.67% of the time an average of 9.49%

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