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First Polls After Trump Conviction: Warning Signs For Republican
Brian Bushard Forbes Staff
Brian is a Boston-based Forbes breaking news reporter.

Jun 1, 2024,12:59pm EDT
Updated Jun 1, 2024, 01:00pm EDT

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/01/first-polls-after-trump-conviction-warning-signs-for-republican/?sh=3610b83164e6

TOPLINE Nearly half of Independents said they want former President Donald Trump to drop his 2024 campaign after a New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his criminal hush money case, according to a new poll released Saturday, following another poll Friday that showed other warning signs for the Republican candidate.


More than half of respondents in a Morning Consult survey said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve ...

KEY FACTS

A Morning Consult conducted on Friday found 54% of registered voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve the guilty verdict, and though 49% said Trump should be sentenced to probation, over 44% who said he should be given a prison sentence (68% of respondents said he should be fined).

Roughly 49% of Independents in the poll said they believe Trump should drop out of the presidential race, just one day after Trump was convicted in his criminal trial in New York.

The survey also found 15% of likely Republican voters believe Trump should drop his campaign, while 8% of self-proclaimed Trump supporters in the survey said the same.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted just hours after Trump’s guilty verdict was read also found 56% of Republican voters said the conviction does not change their vote, while 35% said they were more inclined to vote for Trump after the verdict.

Still: 10% of Republicans in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed over 2,500 U.S. adults, said they were less likely to vote for Trump in the wake of the conviction, while a quarter of Independent voters said the same—18% of Independents said they were more likely to vote for Trump after the conviction.

KEY BACKGROUND

Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases since launching his 2024 presidential campaign, and previous polling has indicated those cases could potentially cost him the election (Trump has pleaded not guilty on all charges). Roughly 46% of respondents in an April Quinnipiac poll said they believe Trump committed a crime by concealing hush money payments, while 46% of respondents in an April New York Times/Siena poll said Trump should be found guilty in the hush money case. In an AP/Norc poll released in May, roughly half of respondents said Trump would not be fit for office if convicted in New York.