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Forecast Model: Trump, GOP Lead in Election Races

By Charlie McCarthy | Wednesday, 29 May 2024 11:10 AM EDT

Former President Donald Trump is favored to return to the White House, according to a forecast model released more than five months before November's election.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model also shows Republicans being favored to win control of the House and the Senate.

"This is like taking a test that doesn't count, like getting a grade in school that doesn't count," Decision Desk HQ Director for Data Science Scott Tranter said of the early forecast, The Hill reported.

"No one's voting today, no one's picking a president or picking a senator. If they did pick them today, this is probably how I'd hand it out."

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model gives Trump a 58% chance of winning the presidency and President Joe Biden a 42% chance of winning reelection.

The model also shows Trump with slight leads in most of the key swing states expected to determine the election outcome.

Another poll, from Civiqs, this week showed Biden's national approval rating is underwater by an average of 22 percentage points, but his rating in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania is even lower.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model currently projects Trump winning 282 electoral votes and Biden 256. A total of at least 270 is needed to win the presidency.

The GOP holds an 80% chance of winning the U.S. Senate and a 64% chance of holding its House majority, according to the model.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model found that Democrat Senate candidates have a higher chance to prevail in all but one of the Senate battlegrounds.

In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy has a 78% chance of defeating incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, who has a 22% chance of prevailing.

The model is based on the framework used for past elections in 2020 and 2022, but with some changes.

Decision HQ used roughly 200 different data points — including voter registration numbers for each party, demographics, past election results, fundraising totals, and polling averages — to reach the probabilities.

Democrats, though, remember that a widely predicted red wave in the 2022 midterms did not occur.

"The worst thing you can do is peak too soon in politics," Democrat strategist Antjuan Seawright said, The Hill reported.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-gop-lead/2024/05/29/id/1166626/?ns_mail_uid=110c4f27-b39e-4490-8c9e-becd156886f8&ns_mail_job=DM628394_05292024&s=acs&dkt_nbr=0105023yancp