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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.

WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 233.5k, up 19.5k.



Yet again, a rising trendline from last December when West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed at $67.71 was breached intra-week but defended by the end of the week. This week’s low of $76.70 undercut last week’s $76.89 but only to attract bids and close the week up 1.7 percent to $79.58, for a weekly hammer. Last week produced a weekly doji. Earlier, the crude came under pressure after ticking $87.67 on April 12th.

Odds favor a move higher, on condition that this week’s low is not decisively breached. A couple of weeks ago, WTI fell back into a well-established range between $71-$72 and $81-$82 that persisted for 19 months before the upper end gave way seven weeks ago.

Immediately ahead, the upper end likely acts as a magnet. The 50- and 200-day lie at $81.76 and $80.01.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to May 10th was unchanged for 10 consecutive weeks at 13.1 million barrels per day; 12 weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports decreased 225,000 b/d to 6.7 mb/d. As did stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates, which respectively dropped 2.5 million barrels, 235,000 barrels and 45,000 barrels to 457 million barrels, 227.8 million barrels and 116.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased 1.9 percentage points to 90.4 percent.

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