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Saturday, May 18, 2024 11:12:32 AM
1. What will happen when the obvious commercial real estate disaster happens.
The skyscrapers are 50% empty. They have a few years left on their 10yr 2% loans. The banks are going to own them and they are worth 50% of what they were.
How will this affect Fannie Mae in the economy at large? Does anybody imagine a different scenario? It seems to me as sure is nightfall day collapse is impending in all cities.
Is there a way to make money betting against commercial real estate?
2. It’s strange that the 7% interest rate hasn’t dropped home values more than it has. But I believe it will. Thoughts? I’m in LA for example and work in the film business, at least I used to, but suddenly starting a year ago all Production left Los Angeles. Everybody I know in the business is out of work. And about to sell their houses.
3. What other Trump trades are there? I think I’ve made it clear that I’m not a fan of Trump. But from the looks of the swing states the election is his to lose. I actually think the New York case is a bullshit case of selective enforcement. The 130,000 is small potatoes. Even with a conviction, I doubt that’s going to change. I was originally happy to see him going to court, but if I’m any barometer, my opinion has changed. I think his position position in the polls will be strengthened whether he wins or loses.
If he wins and is found not guilty, then the case was a nuisance case. if he loses, it looks like political persecution at worst and selective enforcement at best.
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