Ethereum (ETHUSD)

[ap17]

ETHEREUM ETF ODDS 🤑
BREAKING: Coinbase expects 30% to 40% chance of spot ETH ETF approval by month-end

Eth
Coinbase believe the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.

In a May 15 report, Coinbase states that the main reason the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, also applies to Ethereum.

That is:

“The correlation between the CME futures product and the spot exchange rates is sufficiently high,”


Coinbase
Coinbase also reference the upcoming US election as one of the reasons that their odds are so ‘high’:

“We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%. As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial.”


Coinbase
Coinbase also noted that not all Ethereum ETFs need to be approved at the same time.

The SEC has to make a decision on VanEck’s application by May 23rd.

BUT, they can decide on BlackRock and Fidelity’s applications as late as August.

However…

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas doesn’t have as much faith in a May approval.

“Our odds of approval remain the same: slim to none.”


Eric Balchunas
The main reason that Eric believes they’ll be denied in May is due to the lack of engagement from the SEC.

In the lead up to the Bitcoin ETFs there was constant back and forth between the SEC and issuers.

Basically ever analyst right now is expecting the Ethereum ETFs to be denied on May 23rd.

Except Coinbase…

Do they know something that we don’t? 🤔