FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)

[Hoghead7]

Really hoping I'm correct about earnings, I've been convinced before about certain revenue and ended up being wrong on more than one occasion. The only specific revenue I'm banking on this time is the generation revenue. On the rest we can go by averages. Per last business update during Q1 call there are no module replacements scheduled until Q3. Which means the full generation portfolio should be there, and Q3 should be similar although there is one small replacement which means a little bit of downtime on the module being replaced but that revenue is made up in service! Q2+Q3 generation should average over $15M. Then we will get a basis after Q3 of approximately how much we can expect from generation moving forward. Q4 we have more service scheduled, hence more downtime but a higher amount of money from service. So although generation may slip at times quarter to quarter, We will pick up more than what we lost from that in service. You would have to look back about eight quarters to get a real average on Advanced technologies. Sales will be based on a variety of things I'm not sure of how they account for. I don't know if the complete sale is counted after a project goes fully operational, or an increments. Might be a good question for the conference call. I believe over the next eight quarters, Advanced technologies will have a slight uptick in average revenue based on the new contract with ExxonMobil, which also has a variable. $10M minimum per year. So we can est at least $2.5M per Q average from Exxon alone. But I am relatively confident there's other revenue in the advanced technologies category, possibly another question for the conference call.
https://s21.q4cdn.com/256256048/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/FCEL-Q1-2024-Financial-Results-Presentation-FINAL-1.pdf
Service schedule is in the link above. And anyone reading all of that information has to be optimistic. How could anyone possibly read that business update, and have a vastly improved Q2, and not be extremely optimistic. So obviously we are hinging on Q2 validating the low watermark comment in Q1.