Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 7780. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.27%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side and it remains below all our internal momentum cyclical support models as well. We have elected 3 Bearish Reversals from the cyclical high established on 05/10.

Up to now, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 7595 settling at 7926. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 7830 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 7751. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 7510 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 7830
Previous... 7595
Tomorrow... 7751
This market has declined 10% from the last important cyclical high of 8767. Since that last important cyclical high, the market has made lower low of late over the course of the last 1 event.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7841 and support forming below at 7755. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 8767, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 7811. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7960 made back during the week of November 27th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 16th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 6771 made the week of December 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 21 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in September 2023 at 9503. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8346, it made last high in September. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in May, this market has held above last month's low of 8070 reaching 8070.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 9503 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September 2023. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 12368 back during June 2022. Critical support still underlies this market at 6700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

DiscoverGold