Monday, May 06, 2024 9:30:43 AM
Pointing to the Looming EV Market Crash Suddenly Goes Mainstream
David Blackmon
May 06, 2024
Well, that didn’t take long, did it? I mean, I only started actively predicting a crash in the western world’s EV market late last year, and I’ve been skeptical about the tech’s potential all along, based on the fact that the industry still hasn’t solved the very same shortcomings and consumer concerns that caused it to crash 120 years ago. In 1901, electric cars outnumbered internal combustion cars by a wide margin. Within the next 5 years, the equation had reversed.
This isn’t anything new, and now, some legacy media outlets that have served as loyal boosters of this failing energy transition are starting to catch on.
The Times of London, one of the most shameless EV booster outlets, ran a story on Sunday headlined “The electric car crash will rival the dotcom bubble.”
That prediction could prove to be hyperbolic. Then again, maybe not.
Here’s an excerpt from that story:
What we are witnessing is an imminent business catastrophe impelled by a global corporate stampede: the herd was galvanised by governments, which have yet to recognise, let alone admit, their own responsibility.
In terms of global misallocation of capital, there has been nothing like it since the dotcom bubble. As far as the UK is concerned, the obvious thing for the government to do is to live up to Claire Coutinho’s words and abandon the attempt to force consumers to buy products they don’t entirely trust, which can only end terribly for the businesses involved.
Wow. That’s pretty damn blunt.
But the London Times isn’t the only legacy outlet commenting on the problem. Helen Thomas, a senior editor at the Financial Times, weighed in on the same day with a piece carrying this ominous headline: “The EV car crash is a warning for Europe’s industrial transition.”
But even in commenting on Europe’s approaching EV bloodbath, Thomas cannot bring herself to admit to reality.
In the piece, Thomas details how Chinese EV makers are already making big inroads into the European auto market and bemoans the fact that Europe’s own carmakers have been slow to adapt. She also pooh-poohs “complaints” by Europe’s carmakers that China has all sorts of advantages in the markets, controlling as it does supply chains for pretty much all of the minerals and parts that go into making of EVs, referring to them as “both true and slightly academic at this stage.”
Check out this excerpt:
But the sector itself continues to hedge its bets. It is still demanding “technological neutrality” from policymakers. That arguably gives policymakers an out from, say, building the dense charging network needed for widespread adoption and for reducing battery size and costs. Europe’s exemption for cars run on so-called e-fuels to Europe’s 2035 sales ban is a classic example — a political sop that spreads industry hopes across another technology that isn’t commercially viable, isn’t available at scale and will be needed in other sectors, such as aviation.
“This discussion of ‘what is the best technology’ is not helpful,” says Fabian Brandt, head of automotive at Oliver Wyman. “From an efficiency standpoint, there is no doubt that battery electric vehicles are the preferred technology. The industry needs to be decisive and go all in.”
[End]
You have to love the part about how the industry “needs to go all in” on EVs.
Think about it: What if Ford had decided to go all-in on EVs in 2021? It would be out of business now, since it would not have been able to rely on its hugely profitable ICE models to offset the well more than $10 billion it has lost on EV investments. The same is likely true of GM and Stellantis, and is very probably true of European carmakers like BMW, Mercedes and Volvo.
In reality, a “go all in” strategic approach would become a “go broke and leave the market to China” strategy.
Thomas derides the Euro-car industry for continuing to “hedge its bets.” But what we see here is that, while the Times of London seems to understand the disaster this mad government-driven rush to EVs is going to create in Europe’s auto industry, it is the Financial Times that is still hedging its own bets.
Thomas ends her piece by quoting Harry Benham of Carbon Factor as accusing the Euro-car industry of “whistling as the darkness crept in.” In truth, the same could be said of the FT.
Thomas’s piece is, at the end of the day, a continuation of the leftist climate alarmist hubris that government policy can simply override market forces, an eternal misperception that inevitably ends in economic and financial ruin. The Times of London, amazingly, seems to no longer be laboring under such illusion.
That is all.
https://blackmon.substack.com/p/pointing-to-the-looming-ev-market?publication_id=712558&post_id=144358918&isFreemail=false&r=rd9j8&triedRedirect=true
David Blackmon
May 06, 2024
Well, that didn’t take long, did it? I mean, I only started actively predicting a crash in the western world’s EV market late last year, and I’ve been skeptical about the tech’s potential all along, based on the fact that the industry still hasn’t solved the very same shortcomings and consumer concerns that caused it to crash 120 years ago. In 1901, electric cars outnumbered internal combustion cars by a wide margin. Within the next 5 years, the equation had reversed.
This isn’t anything new, and now, some legacy media outlets that have served as loyal boosters of this failing energy transition are starting to catch on.
The Times of London, one of the most shameless EV booster outlets, ran a story on Sunday headlined “The electric car crash will rival the dotcom bubble.”
That prediction could prove to be hyperbolic. Then again, maybe not.
Here’s an excerpt from that story:
What we are witnessing is an imminent business catastrophe impelled by a global corporate stampede: the herd was galvanised by governments, which have yet to recognise, let alone admit, their own responsibility.
In terms of global misallocation of capital, there has been nothing like it since the dotcom bubble. As far as the UK is concerned, the obvious thing for the government to do is to live up to Claire Coutinho’s words and abandon the attempt to force consumers to buy products they don’t entirely trust, which can only end terribly for the businesses involved.
Wow. That’s pretty damn blunt.
But the London Times isn’t the only legacy outlet commenting on the problem. Helen Thomas, a senior editor at the Financial Times, weighed in on the same day with a piece carrying this ominous headline: “The EV car crash is a warning for Europe’s industrial transition.”
But even in commenting on Europe’s approaching EV bloodbath, Thomas cannot bring herself to admit to reality.
In the piece, Thomas details how Chinese EV makers are already making big inroads into the European auto market and bemoans the fact that Europe’s own carmakers have been slow to adapt. She also pooh-poohs “complaints” by Europe’s carmakers that China has all sorts of advantages in the markets, controlling as it does supply chains for pretty much all of the minerals and parts that go into making of EVs, referring to them as “both true and slightly academic at this stage.”
Check out this excerpt:
But the sector itself continues to hedge its bets. It is still demanding “technological neutrality” from policymakers. That arguably gives policymakers an out from, say, building the dense charging network needed for widespread adoption and for reducing battery size and costs. Europe’s exemption for cars run on so-called e-fuels to Europe’s 2035 sales ban is a classic example — a political sop that spreads industry hopes across another technology that isn’t commercially viable, isn’t available at scale and will be needed in other sectors, such as aviation.
“This discussion of ‘what is the best technology’ is not helpful,” says Fabian Brandt, head of automotive at Oliver Wyman. “From an efficiency standpoint, there is no doubt that battery electric vehicles are the preferred technology. The industry needs to be decisive and go all in.”
[End]
You have to love the part about how the industry “needs to go all in” on EVs.
Think about it: What if Ford had decided to go all-in on EVs in 2021? It would be out of business now, since it would not have been able to rely on its hugely profitable ICE models to offset the well more than $10 billion it has lost on EV investments. The same is likely true of GM and Stellantis, and is very probably true of European carmakers like BMW, Mercedes and Volvo.
In reality, a “go all in” strategic approach would become a “go broke and leave the market to China” strategy.
Thomas derides the Euro-car industry for continuing to “hedge its bets.” But what we see here is that, while the Times of London seems to understand the disaster this mad government-driven rush to EVs is going to create in Europe’s auto industry, it is the Financial Times that is still hedging its own bets.
Thomas ends her piece by quoting Harry Benham of Carbon Factor as accusing the Euro-car industry of “whistling as the darkness crept in.” In truth, the same could be said of the FT.
Thomas’s piece is, at the end of the day, a continuation of the leftist climate alarmist hubris that government policy can simply override market forces, an eternal misperception that inevitably ends in economic and financial ruin. The Times of London, amazingly, seems to no longer be laboring under such illusion.
That is all.
https://blackmon.substack.com/p/pointing-to-the-looming-ev-market?publication_id=712558&post_id=144358918&isFreemail=false&r=rd9j8&triedRedirect=true
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