Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Crude Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Falls Hard to Test Support
By: Christopher Lewis | May 3, 2024

• The oil markets have fallen a bit during the trading week, as we are now looking for some kind of reason to get long again. Remember, there are a multitude of noisy reasons to be in this market at the moment.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has plunged for the week, but quite frankly, at this point in time, I think it continues to see a lot of support underneath, as a lot of questions are now being asked about whether or not there is going to be a geopolitical risk premium attached to this market.

I think it’s a huge mistake to take that out and all it would take is one errant headline to send this market straight back up in the air. Typically, this time of year, we do see a bit of a demand increase for crude oil due to driving and flying. And now the questions around jobs have come into the fray.

As of Friday, we saw the US print much less than anticipated. So, the question will be whether or not demand will pick up or fall if the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Typically, that means oil goes higher over the longer term. And although I don’t call for that, I recognize that if we could reach the $80 level and recover that to the upside, we could see buyers come back in.

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

Brent markets look very much the same, with the $84.50 level being a significant barrier that if we can overcome, I think a lot of traders will get involved and try to run Brent to the $90 level. I have no interest in shorting the oil markets, although it doesn’t look as bullish as it once did. I think this is a situation where if oil starts to fall apart, you’re probably going to have better short trades against other things because if oil falls apart, that means the economic conditions are probably falling apart as well. That being said, I expect a little bit of a recovery, but whether or not we break out to the upside remains to be seen.

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