Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 20, 2024

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 8222 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 7165. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 8767 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 7679. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 8317.

Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 8250 and support forming below at 8056. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 8767, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 8455. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 8767 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 5637 and 10351.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in September 2023 at 9503. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8346, it made last high in September. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in April, this market has held above last month's low of 7679 reaching 7679.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 9503 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September 2023. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 12368 back during June 2022. Critical support still underlies this market at 6700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

DiscoverGold