Savvy Trades and Investments

[gilead23]

Interesting housing analysis thanks

I’m not entirely convinced, but it’s a well laid out case. My counter argument would be that if there was truly a shortage it should have been showing up in housing inflation data prior to the pandemic especially given lower interest rates would have made functional prices even lower yet housing inflation was rather tame in the post housing crisis years.

I do agree my simple 20,000 foot view is not enough to draw conclusions, and short term rentals could also be contributing, but that could also represent ghost supply that may come to market later.

I’m not making any statement on whether home builders are a good investment right now. I’m just saying that logic would indicate that if high rates were counterintuitively a boon for builders that a deep fall in rates at some undetermined time should have the opposite effect.