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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 13, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2024.

After 4 consecutive up weeks, West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.4 percent this week, forming a weekly spinning top. Friday was a huge reversal session, with the intraday high of $87.67 drawing sellers near prior Friday’s spinning top high of $87.63 and reversing to end the session at $85.66/ barrel.

There is horizontal resistance at $88. The crude has come a long way from last December’s bottom at $67.71.

On its way to the recent highs, WTI went back and forth between $71-$72 and $81-$82 for a year and a half before pushing through the upper end two weeks ago. At this stage, a successful breakout retest will be a welcome development for the bulls.

In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to April 5th was unchanged for five consecutive weeks at 13.1 million barrels per day; seven weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports decreased 184,000 b/d to 6.4 mb/d. Stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates all rose – respectively up 5.8 million barrels, 715,000 barrels and 1.7 million barrels to 457.3 million barrels, 228.5 million barrels and 117.7 million barrels. Refinery utilization dropped three-tenths of a percentage point to 88.3 percent.

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