JAZZ
Also the stock is basically unchanged over the past decade, badly underperforming the broader market.
But why is that though 2013 earnings were an adjusted $6.31, now adjusted earnings were $18.29 in 2023 They essentially tripled. Yet the stock is actually lower today than than. Back than it was approaching a trailing 30 times estimates. Now is is lucky if it can get 6. My point that I'm trying to make is you make it sound like the company hasn't executed, they have. They have just been underappreciated.
Q4 product sales were flat y/y although royalty revenue helped total revenue
They are guiding for 4-4.2 billion which is yet another year of revenue growth in 2024. Granted not fast revenue growth, but does it have to be with a PE of 6. As for Royality Revs, that is not one time in nature, it is reoccuring, and they expect it to continue and or grow from this level. As for product sales it is pretty good considering how much Xyrem and it is losing. As Xyrem numbers get smaller and smaller, which big drugs like Xywav, Epidolex, and Rylex continue to grow at double digit % and are actually becoming bigger which is why growth was temporarily not looking at great but should reaccelarate as Xyrem drops have less effect and the growth of these big 3 have bigger effect as the bases get bigger. They have a nice pipeline Led by Zanidatamab this drug is very exciting, and it is very close possibly. Has 2 billion+ peak potential.
Another Factor is R & D has balloned thanks to Zanidatamab, and that is why margin % which the plan is too add to in the future according to the company is another potential tailwind to earnings in the future. I suggest you see the presentataion on Zanidatamab from march it is very impressive. So they have others drugs in the pipeline, but that is your answer to the new drug pipeline hopefully in the near by future. Also keep in Mind in 2013, JAZZ put very little into R & D like 4% of sales, now it is like at 20%, and earnings have tripled still and they are investing in the business, yet the stock has declined over the period. Obviously I think the stock is worthy of multiple of 12-15 times, but right now it is simply not getting the respect in my opinion it deserves. Maybe I will be wrong, but those are my answer back to your post, and why it is one of my best ideas currently. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
