Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

I run several scenarios to see how much it benefits my position (0%, 25%, 50%, 100%, etc.), but I don't pretend to prophesize on which is likely to happen.

You don't have to prophesize, but you do have to estimate. At least, if you want actionable numbers to see if owning the common at current prices is worthwhile.

Now, any sniff test should tell us that if the NWS is a violation of the good faith of the common shareholder agreements

Only a violation by the companies, and by extension FHFA who signed the NWS on the companies' behalf. Treasury never violated the implied covenant because they couldn't; the implied covenant is only between the companies and the shareholders.

then the Treasury should not be put in a position to further engage in predatory practices by using a mechanism of a profit "sweep" into the LP, very similar to the sweep in cash.

Again, the jury verdict had NOTHING to do with Treasury. Treasury is neither a defendant in the case nor a party to the shareholder contracts whose implied covenant was found to have been violated.

The entire LP should be moot - the GSEs are not being liquidated. IMO - the SPS should be retired and the LP written down as part of the release plan as they approach the capital thresholds. They have served their purpose.

I sure hope you don't allow this opinion to be an input in your scenarios that you run. It has no bearing at all on what will actually happen.

Speaking of those scenarios, do you plan on sharing those? I shared mine several years ago, though it could use an update.