Aptose Biosciences Inc (APTO)

[dcaf7]

20% probability of success
Published 03/27/2024, 05:28 PM
On Wednesday, Jones Trading adjusted its outlook on Aptose Biosciences (NASDAQ:APTO), lowering the price target to $5 from the previous $12, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company's stock. The adjustment comes as Aptose Biosciences shifts its development focus towards a new drug combination for treating Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML).

The firm highlighted that Aptose's immediate strategy will concentrate on a triplet combination therapy involving tuspetinib, venetoclax, and HMA for first-line AML treatment. A pilot study for this combination is slated to begin in the summer, with initial findings expected to be presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference.

Meanwhile, the development for relapsed/refractory AML has been paused to improve strategic positioning, with data to be shared at the European Hematology Association (EHA) 2024 conference.

Jones Trading noted that if Aptose demonstrates clear clinical benefits in the first-line setting, it may lead to enhanced business development opportunities as compared to the relapsed/refractory AML setting. Still, the firm also pointed out that a capital overhang is a significant pressure point for both the stock and its clinical development progress.

The company's current cash position stands at $18.6 million, which is expected to fund operations through August 2024. Jones Trading has updated its financial model to reflect the new strategic direction towards first-line AML treatment, estimating unadjusted peak sales of approximately $250 million, assuming a 20% probability of success and a 40% market penetration among patients unfit for intensive chemotherapy.

In light of these developments and other minor changes across the model, Jones Trading reiterated its Buy rating but reduced the price target for Aptose Biosciences to $5. The firm believes that despite the lowered target, the company's stock remains a positive investment opportunity.
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/aptose-biosciences-target-cut-maintains-buy-rating-on-new-drug-development-93CH-3355850