Concerning Buffett's 'mystery stock', it could be more than one stock, in which case the 'over $100 bil market cap' assumption would be incorrect. The unaccounted-for $5 billion in Q3 + Q4 last year might be divided between two or more stocks.
Another key data point noted is the lack of the required SEC filing when Berkshire accumulates over 5% of a company. The reason could be the same as above --> the unaccounted-for $5 bil could be split among two or more stocks. For example - $2.5 in one $60 bil company, and another $2.5 bil in another $60 bil company. So neither would reach the 5% threshold, therefore no required SEC filing.
The third data point they cite is that Berkshire's "banks, insurance, and finance" category grew by $2.38 bil during Q4-23, which occurred despite Berkshire selling their last holdings of Markel and Globe Life (which by my inexact math would have yielded in the $325 mil range). But this entire 3rd data point is fuzzy, since some of that $2.38 bil growth was presumably due to changes in the market value of Berkshire's already existing stock positions. So how much of the $2.38 bil was due to that, and how much due to the new 'mystery stock' purchases? So the numbers are fuzzy, but at minimum we can say that Berkshire likely bought a big chunk (maybe $2 bil range) of something in Q4 and it is in the 'banks, insurance, finance' sector. But again, that ~ $2 bil could have been divided among several different stocks.
So.. the mystery stock's $100 bil market cap assumption seems bogus, at least based on the currently available info. Also, the assumption that Buffett wants to fully acquire the mystery stock has not been established, and he may merely be looking for a sizable chunk of one or more companies.
Anyway, the mystery continues.. :o)
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