Wednesday, March 13, 2024 3:24:57 PM
So are you assuming most independents lean/vote GOP in presidential elections?
https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-angie-craig-2dfdaffd5b634a1bcf8eba73ea9980da
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/27/republicans-independent-voters-poll
Dec 27, 2022 -
Politics & Policy
New data: GOP's gap with independent voters
Interviews with midterm voters show Republicans continually underperform Democrats with one of the ripest targets in politics — independents who say they don't lean toward either party.
Why it matters: The interviews, by AP VoteCast (methodology), show a critical mass of moderates aren't thrilled with Democrats — but are resistant to a MAGA-fied GOP.
The data show Republicans have been stuck in the high 30s among independents in each of the past three elections.
These voters made up 12% of the electorate in 2018, 5% in 2020 and 8% in 2022.
20% of independents didn't vote for either party in 2022 (the missing votes in the chart above).
Between the lines: In November, independents didn't entirely blame Biden for the bad economy, even though they rated it poorly, AP reports.
Few independents said the economy is doing well — and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden's handling of it.
But independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden's control.
Reality check: That nuance was often missing from GOP messaging.
This is called negative partisanship, and it’s potent. It’s safe to say that the primary reason Joe Biden is president today is that the alternative was a second term for the deeply unpopular Donald Trump. For all of Trump’s complaints and questions about how Biden could have gotten 81 million votes, the answer is largely negative partisanship: People wanted to vote against Trump.
https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-angie-craig-2dfdaffd5b634a1bcf8eba73ea9980da
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/27/republicans-independent-voters-poll
Dec 27, 2022 -
Politics & Policy
New data: GOP's gap with independent voters
Interviews with midterm voters show Republicans continually underperform Democrats with one of the ripest targets in politics — independents who say they don't lean toward either party.
Why it matters: The interviews, by AP VoteCast (methodology), show a critical mass of moderates aren't thrilled with Democrats — but are resistant to a MAGA-fied GOP.
The data show Republicans have been stuck in the high 30s among independents in each of the past three elections.
These voters made up 12% of the electorate in 2018, 5% in 2020 and 8% in 2022.
20% of independents didn't vote for either party in 2022 (the missing votes in the chart above).
Between the lines: In November, independents didn't entirely blame Biden for the bad economy, even though they rated it poorly, AP reports.
Few independents said the economy is doing well — and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden's handling of it.
But independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden's control.
Reality check: That nuance was often missing from GOP messaging.
This is called negative partisanship, and it’s potent. It’s safe to say that the primary reason Joe Biden is president today is that the alternative was a second term for the deeply unpopular Donald Trump. For all of Trump’s complaints and questions about how Biden could have gotten 81 million votes, the answer is largely negative partisanship: People wanted to vote against Trump.
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
