littlejohn- Real dough !
Thing is, I had many chances to get back in on the way up, and didn't. I just didn't understand how to value the stock now that they were making AI servers, and felt a 15 -17 PE going forward was all the money for this hardware maker. When SMCI was around $300, only several weeks ago, it had a PE of 20 going forward. When they guided for around 20% higher than expected, I figured the stock was worth $350-$400 max, but it went to over $1000 in about two weeks ! How could anyone know that the stock would go up 250%+ on guidance of 20% more in earnings going forward ? How could anyone have known how to value a stock on the way up, that was around a 10 PE going forward for the longest time in 2002 and early 2003, only to go to a 20 PE going forward only weeks ago, and now almost a 40 PE going forward today ? To me this is insane, and pure frenzied momentum at this point, and I would stay away ! However I will admit, I am upset I didn't stay in the stock till it at least got to a 10 PE last Feb, as when I got out around $75, it only had a 8 PE going forward. So most likely I would have sold around $95-$100, which was my price target when I originally bought it at $69.However I would have still missed out from $100 till now, as I just couldn't get a handle on the proper valuation.
You know LIttlejohn, I have many stories like SMCI. I brought TTD(The Trading Desk) up to the board a few years ago at $68, after a blowout report. Thing is, I had little idea how to value the stock. I mean at $68, it was already selling at a 30 PE going forward, and GOOG at the time, only had around a 27 PE going forward. I knew it was growing faster than GOOG, but it was infinitely smaller, and I hesitated to give it the 50 PE going forward GOOG got the first year or two, when it was growing quickly. Boy was I wrong, as TTD got to over $100 within weeks, and went straight to over $1000 within about a year, holding a PE of 50+ going forward the entire time ! Hindsight is 50/50 !
