Touchstone Exploration Inc (PBEGF)

[kahlua]

I’ve recently doubled my position. The value opportunity was too compelling. Production capacity for both plants is 42.3 boe/d gross. So, applying a 20% discount means the current production capacity is about 33.8 boe/d net * $19 net backs (using Q3 net back #) * 360 days = $231M FCF. Assume a high annual capex of $75M (best return on capital) and a realized 50% tax rate, the company can earn $78M or .33c per share based on 237M f/d shares. A p/e of 12 would mean a sp in the $4 range, roughly 3.5X from today’s closing price.

The risks to the above scenario playing out are management’s tarnished credibility after several years of disappointing the investor community by failing to come close to delivering on production timelines and projected output. As a result of this, they set the bar very low for themselves this year and so far appear to be on track to aggressively drill the development wells, tie them in and ramp up production. To get the egg off their face, the best strategy is to stop with the “wall of cash” quotables and just drill the wells, tie them in, prove out the resource and put up the eye-popping numbers this resource can deliver. Whether scaling up to full production takes 18 months or 3 years remains to be seen but at some point a big re-rate will occur. All imo.