Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL)

[floblu14]

Collegium Pharmaceutical Q4: The Beat Goes On

Excerpts:

The company has been paying down debt and repurchasing stock with its impressive operational cash flow.

The shares have gathered momentum since we last gave a "thumbs up" to this name in late October. We take a look at earnings results and update our analysis around this solid small cap

Collegium posted its fourth quarter numbers on February 22nd. The company delivered non-GAAP earnings of $1.58 a share, more than 30 cents a share above estimates. Revenues rose 15.5% on a year-over-year to $149.7 million, slightly above the consensus. For the year, net product revenues came in at $566.8 million, up 22% over FY2022. Belbuca revenue was a core contributor to growth as net product revenues rose 17% to $49.3 million in the quarter. Xtampza ER did even better with a 38% rise from 4Q2022 to $48.5 million.

Since fourth quarter results hit the wires, both Needham ($40 price target) and Piper Sandler ($39 price target) have reiterated Buy ratings on the stock. H.C. Wainwright maintained its Hold rating on the shares.

Verdict:
Collegium Pharmaceutical made $1.29 a share in FY2023 on just under $567 million in sales. The current analyst firm consensus has profits jumping to $3.97 a share in FY2024 and $6.15 a share in FY2025 on slight increases in revenues. It should be noted these estimates are from just three analyst firms and vary widely for both FY2024 ($2.76 to $6.18 a share) and FY2025 ($3.60 to $8.11 a share).

Even at the low end of estimates, earnings look set to increase at a rapid rate over the next two years. The stock sells at just over 9 times the consensus EPS estimate for this fiscal year. The shares trading near the conversion price of Collegium's convertible debt could be a bit of an overhang.

Read more:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4673487-collegium-pharmaceutical-q4-the-beat-goes-on