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Friday, 02/23/2024 7:13:39 PM

Friday, February 23, 2024 7:13:39 PM

Post# of 461
One of my favorite tools was/is the RSI aka Relative Strength Indicator. It measures the tendency towards being Overbought meaning to much demand and prices getting to high and Oversold which is to many sellers. . You can run various time frames and the tendency towards too many buyers and or too many sellers which will drive the price for the commodity or stock to the point of a change of direction in the price movement. I prefer the fundamentals over the technical traders as that IMO is what should decide prices. (IMO) but its not that simple as Traders whom are there to make money from changes in pricing movements vs the fundamentals of supply and demand. Obviously as more and more traders enter the pricing of commodity markets volatility tends to grow when shortages evolve. There are resources online thru the exchanges and others that can teach smart guys like you how to understand the nomenclatures as well as the mechanics for measuring the changes in overbought and over sold which then you have another set of variables to evaluate your decisions on buy and sell. If you are already using these tools fine if not its worth learning about them and how over selling or over bought facilitate changes in the market pricing and demand even it its just paper trading demand. At the very least it good to know how the markets sway up or down is impacting or being conditioned to change. The bad part is trying to assess how much and how long before the scenario changes and you are going to address that with change of your position. I remember when I was working for Quaker Oats and doing the hedging for a regional brand called Wolf Brand Chili. My analysis of the Beef market was ugly so my co-worker and I put together strategy that was hinged to their demand and our analysis that indicated the cattle kill was going to be low for that year and thus any moves in price would In our opinion upwards so the current market would significantly be a great opportunity to lock in all their needs. for at least a year......Nailed it and the profits from those Cattle hedges was the difference between them making a solid profit and losing a significant amount of money They asked us to come down and do our presentation for the following year. We went down and reviewed our strategy for the following years. They some absolutely cool Texas art that they were giving their sales people that they showed us ( they indicated they were over a $1500 each) probably at least 2x that now. Looking at my co-worker and we smiled thinking we are going to get one of those too....lol. After our presentation their gopher took us out for a quick dinner and ran us by a topless bar...... Our work, knowledge and timing was spot on and we were the only reason they made/ beat plan and they all got a very nice bonus. We did another great job for them based on what we presented that day but I was out of there before the next years plan was over. I laugh about it now but so does my cohort who followed me to Pepsico Restaurants where we did some great things again. I laugh about it now but I know the hurt when you do a great job and it counts for nothing but you own satisfaction for doing it. A good lesson to learn so you don't make the same mistake in not letting those that make it work feel appreciated.
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