Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[thermo]

Internally we've been at $500M - 750M peak sales.

500M x 4x => 2,000M Enterprise Value / 850M shrs => $2.35 / shr. Given it's a one product company with a finite exclusivity period, we will do a DCF when we have time and refine the revenue multiple. For now, whether it's 3x, 4x, ... it doesn't matter.

Guggenheim analyst -- who put a lot of time into his research -- has:
3.5M off-label Avastin injections per year, which is in line with our proprietary retina market model. Conservatively, we think the company will be able to convert ~1/3 of these patients to branded Lytenava for ~1M injections per year. Assuming a WAC price of $500 per injection and a GTN of 20% (in-line with similar products) we estimate peak sales of $560MM

BTIG:
~70% of retinal specialists use compounded bevacizumab as a 1L regimen for their wAMD patients before proceeding to other Tx options. This is largely owed to its attractive price point compared to other anti-VEGF therapies (~$55-$75 per injection vs. ~$2,000 for Eylea and Lucentis vs. ~$1,200 for biosimilar Lucentis) and well-established non-inferior efficacy vs. Lucentis. There are estimated to be over 740k wAMD patients in the US currently pursuing Tx, so the utilization of compounded bevacizumab is substantial despite the disadvantages of the treatment option (discussed further below).