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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 17, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 209.6k, up 17.7k.



On December 13th – the day the Fed made a dovish pivot – West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed at $67.71, which approximated an intraday low of $67.05 posted in June. After the June low, the crude rallied all the way to $95.03 through September.

Once it bottomed in December, WTI has been making higher lows, with last week’s low of $71.41 defending the lower bound of a 14-month range between $71-$72 and $81-$82.

This week, the crude ($78.46/barrel) poked its head out of the 200-day ($77.41); the average stopped rally attempts going back three months. This time around, WTI has a decent chance of staying above the 200-day and then head toward $80, where it has struggled the past three months. Should things evolve this way, the door opens up to at least the upper bound of the range.

In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to February 9th was unchanged week-over-week at 13.3 million barrels per day. This is a record and was first hit in the week to December 15th, then four more times after that. Crude imports decreased 437,000 b/d to 6.5 mb/d. Gasoline and distillate inventory also declined – down 3.7 million barrels and 1.9 million barrels respectively to 247.3 million barrels and 125.7 million barrels. Crude stocks, on the other hand, increased 12 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization dropped 1.8 percentage points to 80.6 percent.

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