Over done? You know my bearish stance so no. If that was a wave 3 up wave 4 down went past the level I googled which is the .382@ 8.91 ill be curious to see if it can make 5 waves up, 3 from what i gather isnt bullish and that could have been a 3 move up. Here's something I typed out that might confuse you, I struggle just as bad as the next. There is a difference between Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci projections. I think retracements are the normal levels and projections are more like the extremes. I've had decent luck with projections but have been trying to use both.
That's a tough one. Measuring Fibonacci projections from the high just below $10 on sep. 18 to the low of sub $5 in October to the latest high gives downward levels of (previous reply had the upwards levels that it's seemed to align with for the time being)
.236/ 9.56
.382/ 8.85
.5/ 8.27
.618/ 7.70
.786/ 6.83
1/ 5.84
1.618/ 2.83
I see volume nodes around here and low 7s.
I'll be honest, I don't know what to make of that pattern. Could be in a first wave 4 of 5 up if it start to find support then after wave 5 it could be wave 2 down in 3 moves and the good wave 3- typically longest and strongest either up or down. I'm still new with lots to learn, and have gathered the most evidence a sustainable long term bottom is in is after the lowest low you get 5 waves up and a 3 wave move down (ABC). I don't know if this is a W Pattern, kinda looked like one so I could see that pump up happening. After that it's not clear with my limited knowledge, so take ot all with a grain of salt and the market will do what it wants regardless lol.
From the IPO low of $20.61 to the $56 high I have a retracement of the 1.5 fib $2.88 and the 1.618 of -$1.30 again, my treading water knowledge knows that the .618 and 1.618 levels are most often touched and I haven't figured out counting waves so I pretty much rely on those two basics. Negative price would be a reverse split or bankruptcy I'm guessing but that 1.5 fib retracement of $2.88 is awfully close to the recent 1.618 fib extension of $2.83 then I factor in my view on the global economy (pessimistic by nature) and wouldn't be surprised to see that happening, unless we get the 5 wave move up and 3 down that ive been looking for on about any of my stocks. I use trading view to practice charting when they do half off sale around Thanksgiving And follow more trading online, crypto savy, and market makers on YouTube as they all either use Fibonacci or some sort of it and I'm becoming a believer in it. Northstar bad charts is the other trading publication I pay for and they teach risk management and have a learning section that I haven't checked out nearly enough. My last one is Bonner private research and you can watch the sales pitch on YouTube under Americas nightmare winter. Some of it is pretty boring but the gist of energy crisis causes by the green energy scam alings with my view. They have a portfolio of "maximum safety" with 60% commodies split between high dividend energy stocks and prescious metals and 40% in 1-3 month Treasury bills getting paid 5.5% interest waiting for a crash to buy high quality bargins. Lots of good free info from the YouTube guys I mentioned. Sorry for the long winded rant but I'm a believer in the Fibonacci and like to share good info when I have it.
