Tuesday, February 13, 2024 3:34:26 PM
Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This biopharmaceutical company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.53 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +30.3%.
Revenues are expected to be $26.84 million, up 42.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 10.09% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Esperion Therapeutics?
For Esperion Therapeutics, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +24.53%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.
So, this combination indicates that Esperion Therapeutics will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Esperion Therapeutics would post a loss of $0.42 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.37, delivering a surprise of +11.90%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Esperion Therapeutics appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Recent ESPR News
- Esperion to Report First Quarter 2024 Financial Results on May 7 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/23/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Esperion Presents Important New Data from CLEAR Outcomes at ACC.24 Highlighting Value of NEXLETOL® (bempedoic acid) Tablets in Diverse Populations Including Women, Hispanics/Latinx and Patients with Obesity • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/07/2024 06:45:00 PM
- Esperion to Ring Nasdaq Opening Bell Today, April 1, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/01/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Esperion to Participate in 23rd Annual Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/26/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Esperion Announces Data from CLEAR Outcomes Sub-Groups as Poster Presentations, Moderated Session & Industry Expert Theatre to be Presented at ACC.24 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/25/2024 08:00:00 PM
- U.S. FDA Approves Broad New Labels for Esperion’s NEXLETOL® and NEXLIZET® to Prevent Heart Attacks and Cardiovascular Procedures in Both Primary and Secondary Prevention Patients, Regardless of Statin Use • Business Wire • 03/22/2024 10:26:00 PM
- U.S. FDA Approves Broad New Labels for NEXLETOL® and NEXLIZET® to Prevent Heart Attacks and Cardiovascular Procedures in Both Primary and Secondary Prevention Patients, Regardless of Statin Use • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/22/2024 07:10:20 PM
- CHMP Issues Positive Opinions For Both Bempedoic Acid And The Bempedoic Acid / Ezetimibe Fixed-Dose Combination Tablet As Treatments For Hypercholesterolemia And Significantly Reducing Cardiovascular Events • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/22/2024 03:04:39 PM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 02:19:19 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 12:23:29 PM
- Esperion Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/27/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Esperion Announces Inducement Grants Under NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/16/2024 09:30:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 07:14:47 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 03:50:20 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 01:42:23 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 11:11:31 AM
- Esperion to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results on February 27 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/13/2024 01:00:00 PM
- RFK, Esperion Therapeutics Announce 2024 Promotional Schedule • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/01/2024 07:00:00 PM
- Esperion Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Exercise in Full of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/23/2024 09:00:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/22/2024 11:10:03 AM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/22/2024 11:04:57 AM
- Esperion Announces Pricing of $85.1 Million Public Offering of Common Stock • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/19/2024 02:15:58 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/18/2024 09:03:07 PM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/18/2024 09:01:29 PM
- Esperion Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/18/2024 09:00:00 PM
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