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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 10, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 191.8k, down 48.2k.



In Monday’s long-legged doji session, West Texas Intermediate crude tagged $71.41 intraday to reverse to end at $72.78, up slightly. This was a successful test of the lower bound of a 14-month range between $71-$72 and $81-$82. By Friday, the 200-day moving average ($77.34) was tested with the crude rising to $77.29 intraday and closing at $76.84, up 6.4 percent for the week.

There is room for the crude to continue higher on the daily. If the 200-day gets taken out and oil bulls manage to also reclaim 80, where the crude has struggled the past three months, the door opens up to at least the upper bound of the range.

In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to February 2nd increased 300,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.3 million b/d. This level was first hit in the week to December 15th, then a couple of more times after that in that month and in January. Crude imports increased 1.3 mb/d to 6.9 mb/d. Crude stocks also rose, up 5.5 million barrels to 427.4 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventory, on the other hand, declined 3.1 million barrels and 3.2 million barrels respectively to 251 million barrels and 127.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization dropped five-tenths of a percentage point to 82.4 percent.

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