Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

This is the situation that would likely make you correct - TSY converts and is not challenged or wins the challenge, TSYs conversion results in an outsized number of shares vis-a-vis market norms, a reverse split is determined to be the best option to get investors to take their positions, and ALL of this is done while in c'ship, not to mention there are no ensuing legal challenges.

This is basically the scenario I think has a 75% chance of happening. Though with slightly different reasoning: I think the reverse split wouldn't be done to reduce the share count to something palatable to the market but instead to increase the share price to wherever FHFA/Treasury/outside investors want it to be.

but one would have to wait for the specifics before anything could be said on the likelihood that a reverse split would even need to be a consideration.

No. The analysis can, and should, be done right now.

How could you tell if holding or buying at today's prices is a good idea without an analysis of future possibilities, their probabilities, and the resulting share price for each one?

That means actually thinking about potential dilution now, rather than waiting for it to happen. Otherwise holding or buying is just pure gambling, akin to buying lottery tickets without knowing what the odds or jackpot are.

It is NOTHING but mental masturbation and speculation to even talk about the need for a reverse split, much less the legalities involved.

Nope, Such "speculation" is necessary in order to know if one is making a good investment or not. Sticking one's head in the sand is never a good idea.

NOBODY here knows Treasury's intentions, what Congress may or may not eventually allow, what the courts may allow or not allow, what future legal challenges may ensue, and a plethora of other variables that makes any discussion of a reverse split totally meaningless at this point. I am hopeful, but not expecting, that you will understand the depth and breadth of this topic and not be so assured that you have ANY idea, much less such certainty, on how a reverse split would eventually be excuted.

One of Louie's specific brands of bullshit is the idea that since nobody knows the future, everyone's predictions are equally useless. Upon reading this last paragraph of yours I am afraid you have succumbed to it.

There are many reasons it is wrong; the easiest to articulate is that if it were correct the insurance industry would not exist at all.

None of us has to KNOW Treasury's intentions in order to make predictions and assign probabilities to them.