Seres Therapeutics Inc (MCRB)

[Cosa]

Added a little more. I do more DD as my position grows. Noticed VOWST cost is high at $17,500 so it might be pricing itself out of competition and insurance companies may not approve its use opting for Rebyota or Bezlotoxumab. These 3 drugs are not prescribed until 2nd reinfection of c diff.

Estimated 500,000 cases a year. 1 in 6 will get it again in 2-8 weeks. 500,000 divided by 6 is 83,333 reinfection. 5% market penetration would be 83,333 divided by 20 which is 4,166. $17,500 x 4,166 is about $73M. They should think about reducing the price for greater market penetration rather than being the 3rd option for insurance companies. Lets just say $6,000 for VOWST but it is the first option for treatment because of its phase III 91% success rate. Market penetration of 40% or 33,328 x $6,000 is $200M a year.

With the market cap sitting at $148M, I think it is an excellent entry point and I will continue adding.

All above is just my opinion

Source of cases:
https://www.cdc.gov/cdiff/what-is.html#:~:text=It's%20estimated%20to%20cause%20almost,the%20subsequent%202%2D8%20weeks.