Here is a little sensitivity analysis using the earnings per share * price to earnings ratio to get the price of BANY that I came up with.
note* there are a lot of "what if's" to take into account concerning:
1 number of shares outstanding
2 if bany can reach a level of positive earnings per share
3 and if they can reach positive eps, what will it be
4 how much will expenses be this quarter
Once the next report comes out, we will know a lot more about these crucial "what if's" and can get a good sense of what the stock is worth.
Here is my analysis:
In looking at the quarterly income statements (through yahoo), for the period ending sept 30, 06: bany had revenues of $1.432 and a negative net income of -$576,000. Since then, there was a press release saying 66 VT3000 machines were sold adding revenues of 1.58 million since nov 2006. This was announced on Jan. 11th. how much of that revenue can be counted in the next quarter (oct, nov, dec)? I would say almost all of it since it was announced just after the end of december, but we will only add 2/2.333*1.58=1.3545million. The 2 comes from the two months in the quarter that the new revenue should have been colected and the 2.333 is the total time of selling the 66 machines. So to sum up, 85.73% of the revenue from selling the 66 machines since november should have been collected in this last quarter. Now our revenues for oct, nov, and dec are around the 1.3545 million(selling the vt3000) plus the last quarter revenues of 1.432 million equals 2.7865 million. This does not include any revenue growth from franchising new clinics during that quarter. I don't have the best idea in finding out how much new revenue was gained just from the new franchises, but the growth in revenue from the previous quarter (june 30th) to sep 30th (which is before vt3000 machine sales) is 6.79%. If you take the ending revenue - the beginning revenue divided by the beginning revenue, you get .0679 or 6.79%. I am assuming at the minimum the revenue grew 6.79% in the quarter. You could also find the arithmatic mean in revenue growth from the last three quarters starting at the quarter ending december 31 05. That is 164.367% average revenue growth over the last three quarters. 1.0679*1432 = 1.529 million in revenue at the minimum just for the franchising revenue. So a low end revenue estimate for the 4th quarter of 06 (1.529 m + 1.3545 m) is 2.8835 million. If we assume the same exp, which is not very good, but it is all i really have, net income for the quarter will be around $875,000 dollars. Multiply that by 4 and you get $3,500,000 in net income for next year. If you divide that by the number of shares outstanding, which no one knows so we we will say 1 billion, you get .0035 earnings per share or eps. So .0035 eps is a low end times a higher multiple for the growth rate we are seeing, andywhere from 20 to 40, you get a price per share of .07 or 7 cents per share to 14 cents per share. This does not include what would happen to the price considering all short coverings. So just something for everyone to consider when looking at BANY. 7 to 14 cents per share!!!!!
my opinion only
