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Wednesday, 01/03/2024 12:38:55 PM

Wednesday, January 03, 2024 12:38:55 PM

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Why 2024 could be a year of American optimism

I'm more than ready for some optimism.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/03/economy-prediction-2024-disinflation-inflation

2 hours ago -
Economy
Why 2024 could be a year of American optimism
Felix Salmon , author of Axios Markets

American consumer confidence — still bizarrely low given how healthy the economy is — could be set for a substantial rebound in 2024.

Why it matters: Consumer confidence has historically been a good predictor of whether or not incumbent politicians will be re-elected. A rebound would therefore be good news for President Biden and Democrats more broadly.

The big picture: The U.S. boasts the strongest economy of any rich nation. The much-predicted 2023 recession failed to appear, employment has remained robust, real wages have been rising, and the outlook for 2024 is similarly healthy.

Crime is also down substantially, with homicides falling at a near-record rate in 2023.

Between the lines: Americans are already showing signs of confidence and prosperity in their spending. They happily shelled out more money than ever on holiday gifts in December, for instance.

snip//

The bottom line: There's no good reason for low consumer confidence to continue indefinitely. As Stein's law says: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
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