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Wednesday, December 27, 2023 9:34:11 PM
Scenarios Differ On Fate Of Immigration Border Deal And Ukraine Aid
Still brooklyn13's prickliness at legit critique of Israel does not compute.
Another screwed up first for Trump's extremist GOP.
Stuart Anderson
Senior Contributor
I write about globalization, business, technology and immigration.
Dec 21, 2023,08:12am EST
The United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. Congress and the White House reaching an immigration ... [+]Getty Images
Congress and the White House reaching an immigration deal that frees up aid to Ukraine depends mainly on whether such an agreement is even possible, given the issues and varying interests. Negotiators have reported progress but no deal ..https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/schumer-mcconnell-ukraine-border-deal-00132608 . The GOP demands represent the first time .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/10/analysis-of-immigration-issues-in-border-talks-shows-high-stakes/ .. one political party has conditioned its support for a significant national security initiative on changing U.S. immigration law. That might be enough to prevent a deal, particularly if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) intended to tie immigration to Ukraine aid as a way to end further assistance and avoid dissension among Republican House members.
[So Iran Mullah-like, mired in words of some 2000 years ago, and his Mullah-like Housemates have Putin rubbing
his hands with glee. PS: Just saw the Putin mention at bottom. They are a huge stain on all good about America.]
Scenario #1: White House And Congress Reach An Agreement
Compromise on several issues would be needed for the Biden administration and Republicans in the Senate to reach an immigration agreement. According to media reports, Senate Republicans and Biden officials have agreed on raising the “credible fear” standard to apply for asylum and adding a quick expulsion authority at the border and perhaps elsewhere. “The authority would kick in once the number of crossings rises above officials’ capacity to detain and process migrants,” reports the New York Times .. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/us/politics/congress-border-talks-ukraine.html .
[Future Republican strategy, cut the number of immigration
people working on detaining and processing. That's clear.]
There appears to be a lot of disagreement as to what the trigger would be and how it would work, according to a Congressional source.
With the New Year approaching, areas of disagreement also include the categories of people authorities can detain and the use of the executive branch’s parole authority. “Administration officials told lawmakers they are strongly protecting presidential parole authority but danced around direct answers on other policies, according to the three people,” reported Politico .. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2023/12/18/a-long-overdue-meeting-00132327 .. on a meeting between the White House and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Understandably, the Biden administration wants to protect its parole authority, which includes programs allowing up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans to enter monthly with a U.S. sponsor. Upcoming research from the National Foundation for American Policy, where I work, shows the Biden administration’s humanitarian parole programs .. https://www.uscis.gov/CHNV .. have been effective in reducing illegal entry. Border Patrol encounters declined by 60% for the four parole countries as a group between December 2022 (the month before the parole programs started) and October 2023. For all non-parole countries, Border Patrol encounters increased by 12% during this period.
Analysts warn that chaos could reign without parole authority on the border. If border personnel cannot use parole, they must detain people, including families with children, or send them to Mexico under Title 42 expulsion authority or Remain in Mexico, neither of which now exist. “To reestablish these two programs or authorities would require Mexico’s agreement, and the Mexican government has said categorically it will not restart Remain in Mexico,” said Theresa Cardinal Brown, who served as a senior official in U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
It remains to be seen if Mexico would accept people returned under an authority similar to Title 42, a public health authority used during Covid-19 that allowed the U.S. government to expel individuals without the ability to claim asylum. That raises questions about a new law, including one triggered by the level of border crossing, requiring expulsion to a country that can choose not to accept migrants.
With U.S. immigration authorities controlling approximately 40,000 .. https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/quickfacts/ .. detention spaces and U.S. border personnel encountering about 241,000 migrants .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters .. in October 2023 alone, detaining everyone who crosses the border or comes to a port of entry is not realistic. “The types of absolute mandates being proposed are not operationally feasible,” said Brown. Congress has never funded detention beds in the hundreds of thousands and is unlikely to do so.
In sum, the issues yet to be resolved in the Senate-Biden administration talks remain challenging and not conducive to obvious compromises.
Absent from the public debate is a stark reality: the United States is experiencing a refugee crisis .. https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-the-historic-refugee-crisis-in-the-western-hemisphere/ . Over 7.7 million people .. https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/situations/venezuela-situation .. have left Venezuela because the government destroyed the economy and political system. Today, most individuals and families from countries undergoing political and economic crises in the region come to the U.S. border after fleeing desperate circumstances .. https://www.crashoutmedia.com/p/five-forces-driving-the-migrant-surge .. .back home. Finding no way to enter lawfully, they cross and turn themselves in .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/10/analysis-of-immigration-issues-in-border-talks-shows-high-stakes/ .. , often as family units. That is the primary source of illegal entry that lawmakers have criticized.
Untenable conditions now drive people in many countries to seek a better life in neighboring countries or the United States, much like the Irish in the 1800s and the Jews who sought refuge from Tsarist Russia. There is little evidence from the past 100 years that the harsher immigration enforcement policies GOP negotiators have proposed will reduce illegal entry or people’s desires for a better life. (See this NFAP study .. https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-illegal-entry-presidents-and-effective-policy/ .) Under the Trump administration’s approach, apprehensions along the Southwest border, a proxy for illegal entry, more than doubled .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2019?language_content_entity=en .. between FY 2016 ..https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2018-Mar/CBP-fy2016-border-security-report.pdf .. and FY 2019 .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2019?language_content_entity=en , declined in the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, but then rose again .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters .
Scenario #2: White House And Senate Reach Agreement But House Refuses
Most coverage of the Senate-White House talks assumes the House of Representatives will vote on the agreement. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson has already said he would reject any deal that does not include every measure contained in the House-passed immigration bill H.R. 2. Supporters of a deal may hope that the Senate passing a bill would pressure Johnson to put the legislation to a House vote. That might be the case, but there is no guarantee.
The alternative view is that Johnson and several other House Republicans hoped to kill aid to Ukraine by attaching a “poison pill .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/11/01/border-bills-immigration-demands-would-likely-doom-aid-to-ukraine/ .” In other words, if Johnson wanted a Ukraine aid bill to pass, he would not have tied it to an immigration bill he knew could not become law.
Another possibility is the agreement is defeated in the House or Senate by Democrats unhappy the immigration provisions are too restrictive and Republicans who believe the measures are not restrictive enough.
Scenario #3: No Deal Is Reached
Given how difficult it is to reach an agreement on immigration legislation, a plausible outcome is no deal is reached or the House rejects the compromise, possibly without putting the measure to a vote. If there is no agreement or legislation is defeated, how it happens may determine whether President Biden, Sen. Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. McConnell (R-KY) can salvage aid to Ukraine. It is possible Republicans already may have doomed the effort to provide more assistance to Ukraine by going out on a limb and tying Ukraine’s aid to new immigration legislation.
The Republican strategy to block aid to Ukraine absent an immigration deal appears to have produced a spring in Vladimir Putin’s step .. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-glows-triumphant-as-front-freezes-and-western-aid-for-ukraine-stalls/ar-AA1lIjmb . He has often boasted the West is weak and cannot stand up to Russia’s determination .. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1737201136677908663 . Analysts say a Russian victory in Ukraine, plausible without continued U.S. aid, will prove him right.
Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website.
Stuart Anderson
I am the executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, a non-partisan public
policy research organization focusing on trade, immigration and related issues based in...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/21/scenarios-differ-on-fate-of-immigration-border-deal-and-ukraine-aid/?sh=5e94bf5130e8
Still brooklyn13's prickliness at legit critique of Israel does not compute.
Another screwed up first for Trump's extremist GOP.
Stuart Anderson
Senior Contributor
I write about globalization, business, technology and immigration.
Dec 21, 2023,08:12am EST
The United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. Congress and the White House reaching an immigration ... [+]Getty Images
Congress and the White House reaching an immigration deal that frees up aid to Ukraine depends mainly on whether such an agreement is even possible, given the issues and varying interests. Negotiators have reported progress but no deal ..https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/schumer-mcconnell-ukraine-border-deal-00132608 . The GOP demands represent the first time .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/10/analysis-of-immigration-issues-in-border-talks-shows-high-stakes/ .. one political party has conditioned its support for a significant national security initiative on changing U.S. immigration law. That might be enough to prevent a deal, particularly if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) intended to tie immigration to Ukraine aid as a way to end further assistance and avoid dissension among Republican House members.
[So Iran Mullah-like, mired in words of some 2000 years ago, and his Mullah-like Housemates have Putin rubbing
his hands with glee. PS: Just saw the Putin mention at bottom. They are a huge stain on all good about America.]
Scenario #1: White House And Congress Reach An Agreement
Compromise on several issues would be needed for the Biden administration and Republicans in the Senate to reach an immigration agreement. According to media reports, Senate Republicans and Biden officials have agreed on raising the “credible fear” standard to apply for asylum and adding a quick expulsion authority at the border and perhaps elsewhere. “The authority would kick in once the number of crossings rises above officials’ capacity to detain and process migrants,” reports the New York Times .. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/us/politics/congress-border-talks-ukraine.html .
[Future Republican strategy, cut the number of immigration
people working on detaining and processing. That's clear.]
There appears to be a lot of disagreement as to what the trigger would be and how it would work, according to a Congressional source.
With the New Year approaching, areas of disagreement also include the categories of people authorities can detain and the use of the executive branch’s parole authority. “Administration officials told lawmakers they are strongly protecting presidential parole authority but danced around direct answers on other policies, according to the three people,” reported Politico .. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2023/12/18/a-long-overdue-meeting-00132327 .. on a meeting between the White House and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Understandably, the Biden administration wants to protect its parole authority, which includes programs allowing up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans to enter monthly with a U.S. sponsor. Upcoming research from the National Foundation for American Policy, where I work, shows the Biden administration’s humanitarian parole programs .. https://www.uscis.gov/CHNV .. have been effective in reducing illegal entry. Border Patrol encounters declined by 60% for the four parole countries as a group between December 2022 (the month before the parole programs started) and October 2023. For all non-parole countries, Border Patrol encounters increased by 12% during this period.
Analysts warn that chaos could reign without parole authority on the border. If border personnel cannot use parole, they must detain people, including families with children, or send them to Mexico under Title 42 expulsion authority or Remain in Mexico, neither of which now exist. “To reestablish these two programs or authorities would require Mexico’s agreement, and the Mexican government has said categorically it will not restart Remain in Mexico,” said Theresa Cardinal Brown, who served as a senior official in U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
It remains to be seen if Mexico would accept people returned under an authority similar to Title 42, a public health authority used during Covid-19 that allowed the U.S. government to expel individuals without the ability to claim asylum. That raises questions about a new law, including one triggered by the level of border crossing, requiring expulsion to a country that can choose not to accept migrants.
With U.S. immigration authorities controlling approximately 40,000 .. https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/quickfacts/ .. detention spaces and U.S. border personnel encountering about 241,000 migrants .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters .. in October 2023 alone, detaining everyone who crosses the border or comes to a port of entry is not realistic. “The types of absolute mandates being proposed are not operationally feasible,” said Brown. Congress has never funded detention beds in the hundreds of thousands and is unlikely to do so.
In sum, the issues yet to be resolved in the Senate-Biden administration talks remain challenging and not conducive to obvious compromises.
Absent from the public debate is a stark reality: the United States is experiencing a refugee crisis .. https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-the-historic-refugee-crisis-in-the-western-hemisphere/ . Over 7.7 million people .. https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/situations/venezuela-situation .. have left Venezuela because the government destroyed the economy and political system. Today, most individuals and families from countries undergoing political and economic crises in the region come to the U.S. border after fleeing desperate circumstances .. https://www.crashoutmedia.com/p/five-forces-driving-the-migrant-surge .. .back home. Finding no way to enter lawfully, they cross and turn themselves in .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/10/analysis-of-immigration-issues-in-border-talks-shows-high-stakes/ .. , often as family units. That is the primary source of illegal entry that lawmakers have criticized.
Untenable conditions now drive people in many countries to seek a better life in neighboring countries or the United States, much like the Irish in the 1800s and the Jews who sought refuge from Tsarist Russia. There is little evidence from the past 100 years that the harsher immigration enforcement policies GOP negotiators have proposed will reduce illegal entry or people’s desires for a better life. (See this NFAP study .. https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-illegal-entry-presidents-and-effective-policy/ .) Under the Trump administration’s approach, apprehensions along the Southwest border, a proxy for illegal entry, more than doubled .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2019?language_content_entity=en .. between FY 2016 ..https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2018-Mar/CBP-fy2016-border-security-report.pdf .. and FY 2019 .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2019?language_content_entity=en , declined in the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, but then rose again .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters .
Scenario #2: White House And Senate Reach Agreement But House Refuses
Most coverage of the Senate-White House talks assumes the House of Representatives will vote on the agreement. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson has already said he would reject any deal that does not include every measure contained in the House-passed immigration bill H.R. 2. Supporters of a deal may hope that the Senate passing a bill would pressure Johnson to put the legislation to a House vote. That might be the case, but there is no guarantee.
The alternative view is that Johnson and several other House Republicans hoped to kill aid to Ukraine by attaching a “poison pill .. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/11/01/border-bills-immigration-demands-would-likely-doom-aid-to-ukraine/ .” In other words, if Johnson wanted a Ukraine aid bill to pass, he would not have tied it to an immigration bill he knew could not become law.
Another possibility is the agreement is defeated in the House or Senate by Democrats unhappy the immigration provisions are too restrictive and Republicans who believe the measures are not restrictive enough.
Scenario #3: No Deal Is Reached
Given how difficult it is to reach an agreement on immigration legislation, a plausible outcome is no deal is reached or the House rejects the compromise, possibly without putting the measure to a vote. If there is no agreement or legislation is defeated, how it happens may determine whether President Biden, Sen. Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. McConnell (R-KY) can salvage aid to Ukraine. It is possible Republicans already may have doomed the effort to provide more assistance to Ukraine by going out on a limb and tying Ukraine’s aid to new immigration legislation.
The Republican strategy to block aid to Ukraine absent an immigration deal appears to have produced a spring in Vladimir Putin’s step .. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-glows-triumphant-as-front-freezes-and-western-aid-for-ukraine-stalls/ar-AA1lIjmb . He has often boasted the West is weak and cannot stand up to Russia’s determination .. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1737201136677908663 . Analysts say a Russian victory in Ukraine, plausible without continued U.S. aid, will prove him right.
Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website.
Stuart Anderson
I am the executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, a non-partisan public
policy research organization focusing on trade, immigration and related issues based in...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/12/21/scenarios-differ-on-fate-of-immigration-border-deal-and-ukraine-aid/?sh=5e94bf5130e8
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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