Tuesday, December 19, 2023 11:22:52 AM
All the NWS lawsuits had big legal firms as the plaintiffs who knew what they were doing and they lost anyway.
When Treasury exercises the warrants and/or converts the seniors to commons, I do expect lawsuits to be filed. But I see no reason to think that those lawsuits will cause any delay to recap/release or succeed in undoing any of the dilution.
And the moment Treasury does either of those things above I expect the juniors to trade at several multiples of today's prices. At that point I could sell out a huge gain and not worry about what happens as a result of the lawsuits, while the common shares would have to wait until the lawsuits were resolved to see the same kind of price appreciation.
Invested a ton in commons?
If I were you, I would check into their junior pref holdings too. If they hold enough juniors they can afford to take a hit on their common position while coming out ahead overall, just like Bill Ackman. Especially because warrant exercise and/or senior-to-common conversion is likely to be accompanied by a junior-to-common conversion.
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