Here's a WSJ article that may shed some light...
"WSJ: The poll asks, "What is the one issue you feel so strongly about that you couldn't possibly vote for a candidate who disagrees with you on that issue?" Abortion is at the top of that list. If you go a little deeper, you find that that's because the country has become very much more pro-choice.
BOCIAN: For a long time, the question we've been asking, and we also asked it in this survey, is, "What's the most important issue to you when you're going to vote for president?" When you ask that, you still get economic issues. But we felt like there was something in 2022 that the data wasn't telling us about what was happening in these elections, where abortion was still well below the economy but was dispositive for many voters.
What people are telling us is, it's not that they want to focus on abortion, but when one candidate or one side is violating clear norms in a way that they are fearful of, they will vote on that issue even if it's not their No. 1 issue.
WSJ: Right now, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden. I'm not sure how much that means now, 11 months out from the election. You guys tell me.
FABRIZIO: The good news for Joe Biden is he's got 11 months. The bad news for Joe Biden is he's got to dig himself out of a hole. When you look at the people who say they voted for him in 2020, he's only holding on to 87% of those voters right now. The voters who voted for a third party are breaking for Donald Trump right now.
When you look at the comparisons, Donald Trump wins the comparisons with Joe Biden on the economy, on jobs, on inflation, on the border, on foreign-policy stuff. Biden wins on Social Security and Medicare and abortion and things of that nature. But guess what? The ones Donald Trump is winning on are the ones that are most important to the voters right now.
WSJ: Mike, if I were in your shoes, the good news in this poll would be that the people you've lost your grip on are groups that you should be able to get back if you're Joe Biden.
BOCIAN: Yeah, absolutely. It's not an assurance. Democrats are going to have to get much earlier in their outreach to Black voters, to young voters, to Hispanic voters, Asian voters. These are core parts. But that is where he's lost ground."
