Thanks OS... we are two and a half weeks from Q 1 The addition of the patients going into Stage II should not take much additional time to get the full results.
For those who may not know the process, Jaguar had when the Phase III trial began requested results be given to them for the Top tier, or Stage I results. That results was completed at their request...but they were and still are Blind Results...meaning Jaguar had no idea if they were good or bad.... prior to those results being sent to Jaguar the company compiling the results informed Jaguar that a Majority of Subjects of Phase III stage I patients had opted to move on to Stage II. Jaguar was then given the choice have the Top Shelf results and announce them, but still have to wait for Stage II results before being able to submit to the FDA. Or Jaguar could hold off on getting the Stage I results, they themselves would then remain in a blinded state and get all of the results when Stage II was completed and analyzed and then added to the results of Stage I.
Jaguar took the option of remaining Blind and waiting for the complete results, Stages 1 and 2. The mistake they made and they owned up to it in the PR was having put out a time related release of the Stage I results. Because the took the option to wait for both Stages to be completed and analyzed they missed that time line. Investors took that as a signal of the Phase III trial as being negative and began dumping the stock. Sad fact is that it was actually a signal of the Phase III trial having good results... as stated, who goes into a Stage II portion of the trial if the meds they were taking in Stage I did not work.... it was a clear signal of subjects saying I will continue these meds because I am still on my targeted chemo and dont wish to have diarrhea while still taking chemo.
My conclusion from this is that since Stage I was actually ready and the results analyzed and Jaguar could have accepted them, that getting the results from the completed Stage II ( as stated in the December 11 Press Release) portion of the trial and analyzing them will not take as long as if they were analyzing the entire Phase III trial. This is why I am certain that the full results will be released sometime in January.
With the negative reaction to the stock when the Thanksgiving time line was missed Jaguar is taking the high road and using the entire 1st quarter as its announcement time frame.
