Saturday, December 02, 2023 11:35:33 AM
Given the status quo FnF can be released when they have CET1 capital equal to 3% of adjusted total assets. That's the path to release.
They are also allowed to raise $70B each in common stock without prior approval from Treasury. That, plus the drastic increase to the Capital Reserve Amount (allowing them to retain all earnings well past the CET1 3% threshold for release) are the path to recap
While the common equity raise would be impossible with the senior prefs in place, reaching the CET1 threshold is feasible through retained earnings alone. Fannie would hit that level some time in 2036 and Freddie in 2039 at their current run rates of income.
And before you scoff too much at the length of that timeframe, remember that FnF have been in conservatorship for 15 years already. Another 15 years of inertia is all it takes!
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